台灣花卉批發市場決價因素之研究

A Study of Pricing Factors in Taiwan Flower Wholesale Markets

簡榮櫪(Jung-Li Chien)

指導教授 ： 陳建宏

朝陽科技大學/管理學院/財務金融系/碩士(2011年)

摘要

本研究利用相關變數的原始資料，建構影響台灣花卉批發市場花卉決價因素之多元線性迴歸分析模型。結果顯示，在市場內部因素中以花卉進貨量及殘貨率影響最為顯著，其次為相對數量。 在市場外部因素中，結婚率除了大菊、劍蘭、小菊、非洲菊有部分零星市場達顯著外，香水百合項完全不顯著，而玫瑰花在全部市場均達到顯著，而死亡率因素對價格影響除少數市場及花卉達到顯著外，大都呈不顯著。虛擬變數因素共分為節日和選舉兩項因素。就節日因素而言，除非洲菊價格較不受節日影響外，其他市場和花卉幾乎都呈現顯著，表示劍蘭、大菊、小菊、玫瑰、香水百合會因節日而帶動其價格上漲。而選舉因素在大菊、小菊大部分呈現顯著外，其餘均呈現不顯著，表示選舉會促使大菊和小菊價格上揚。故本研究結果可提供農政單位在價格預警及產業輔導的基礎，以及作為花卉業者調整產銷時間決策的參考依據。

關鍵字

決價因素 ； 花卉批發市場 ； 多元線性迴歸

並列摘要

This study, based on the Multiple Linear Regression Model and using the primary data of related variables, aims at establishing an empirical model for analyzing the pricing factors in the flower wholesale markets in Taiwan. By empirical discovery, internal market factors such as the purchase quantity and the damaged good rate have the most significant impact on the pricing, followed by the relative quantity. Although the marriage rate, amongst all the external market factors, has shown a significant influence on the pricing of chrysanthemum, pompon chrysanthemum, gladiolus, Flameray gerbera and rose, it has no influence on the perfume lily. In addition, the mortality factor has impact on some of the flower markets, it has, in general, no significant influence on their pricing.
Other factors affecting the pricing of flowers include two dummy variables, namely festivity and election. Besides Flameray gerbera, the pricing of almost all the other markets and flowers are affected significantly by festivity. This implies that the latter brings about a price increment in gladiolus, chrysanthemum, pompon chrysanthemum, rose and perfume lily. On the other hand, the impact of election, with the exception of all the chrysanthemum, on the floral markets is barely noticeable. This shows that election does result in a price increment in chrysanthemum and pompon chrysanthemum. However, the findings of this study are useful information that the Agricultural authorities might use as a basis for their pricing adjustment and industrial guidance, as well as a guide for the florists in planning their sales schedules.

並列關鍵字

Multiple Linear Regression ； Pricing Factors ； Flower Wholesale Markets

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