台南市古蹟觀光遊客人數預測分析

Tainan City Monuments visitors predictive analysis

陳月津(Yueh -Chin Chen)

指導教授 ： 朱瑞淵

朝陽科技大學/管理學院/休閒生活美學產業碩士專班/碩士(2014年)

摘要

近年來國民旅遊的風氣越來越興盛，隨著開放來台觀光旅客人數的快速成長，但是台灣社會整個大環境的經濟不景氣的影響，此現象也將對文化古蹟觀光、周邊相關產業發展有負面的衝擊。因此本研究應用於ARIMA之時間數列法來做預測推估，探討台南市文化古蹟觀光未來遊客量，利用Box-Jenkins步驟建立ARIMA預測模型分析台南市延平郡王祠、赤崁樓、孔子廟、祀典武廟、五妃廟、大天后宮、安平小鎮、整體區域八處古蹟觀光的遊客人數進行推估與預測。
根據本資料推估分析結果：2010年縣市合併後遊客大幅成長，古蹟觀光整體特定地區遊客人數呈現成長趨勢，突破五千萬人數，為近五年遊客人數之巔峰；但自2011年至2014年期間，古蹟觀光整體特定地區遊客人數卻一直無法突破五千萬大關，2013年則為近五年遊客人數最少的一年，不過到2014年遊客人數則有復甦現象。各古蹟區域未來旅遊人數量有可能因地域或其他因素的差異性而有上升或下滑趨勢，每月的古蹟觀光景點遊客人數，也會隨著季節性的改變，出現明顯的差距，因氣候的變化、旅遊淡旺季也會影響觀光景點之選擇，遊客也會隨著交通及遊憩資源條件的不同而改變旅遊地點，顯示各古蹟觀光整體遊客人數差距有逐漸擴大的跡象，目前市政府的施政政策是否可帶動更多人潮，是有待觀察。

關鍵字； 古蹟觀光、 遊客人數、ARIMA模式

關鍵字

ARIMA模式 ； 遊客人數 ； 古蹟觀光

並列摘要

The industry of tourism has been booming in recent years as the number of international tourist arrivals have been growing rapidly. Unfortunately, the overall economic recession are bringing negative impacts on the tourism development of cultural and historic monuments and related fields in Taiwan. The research has applied ARIMA Time Series to predict and investigate the future tourist numbers to the monuments in Tainan City. At the meantime, the Box-Jenkins Approach is adopted to establish an ARIMA Model in order to analyze and estimate the tourist numbers to the following seven historic monuments; Koxinga Shrine, Fort Provintia, Confucius Temple, War God Temple, Five Concubines Temple, Great Empress of Heaven Temple, Anping Recreation Area; and to the seven monuments as a whole.
Based on the research result, it is found, when the city and the county merged in 2010, the overall tourist number to the monuments increased and broke through fifty million, the highest record in the recent five years. During those years between 2011 and 2014, it had been unable to break through such record again while the least tourist number rested in the year of 2013. However, in 2014, the number picked up. In the future, the tourist numbers to each monument will be differed due to geographical and other factors with either upward or downward trends. The monthly tourist numbers to these monuments will be varied along with the seasonal changes and resulted in obvious differences. The choices of tourist destination will be affected by the climate change and off-and-peak seasons. Meanwhile, the tourists will choose their destinations according to traffic conditions and tourism resources. Such result demonstrates the sign that the gaps of the tourist numbers are expanding. In addition, it requires further observation to see if the city government’s policies can attract more tourists.

Keyword: monument tourism, tourist number, ARIMA model

並列關鍵字

tourist number ； monument tourism ； ARIMA model

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