集集鎮災後重建景觀格局系統動態模擬模式之研究

System Dynamics Simulation Model for Earthquake Rebuilding of the Landscape Patterns in Ji-Ji County

吳岳庭(Yueh-Ting Wu)

指導教授 ： 何友鋒

朝陽科技大學/設計學院/建築系建築及都市設計碩士班/碩士(2013年)

摘要

集集在1999年遭逢傷亡慘重的921大地震，地震災後土地利用、景觀格局、生態環境造成衝擊。災後重建過程對於硬體設施的破壞、基礎建設、土地重新規劃配置等重大工程百廢待興，都市在重建過程中將面臨土地的合理使用、都市設計的適宜性及自然環境的保育與恢復等議題。有鑑於此，本研究目的在探討災後重建針對景觀格局變化影響，瞭解災後重建對災區生態系統可能的變遷，找出重要的影響指標，建構集集災後重建景觀格局的系統動態模式，模擬集集災後重建景觀格局的發展方案，提出地震災後重建之景觀格局規劃策略及預測重建都市趨勢變化。本研究以景觀生態學之景觀格局作為基礎理論，運用系統思維方式及模糊德爾菲專家問卷，建立集集鎮災後重建景觀格局影響的指標體系，藉由系統動態模擬模式，探討系統因果回饋關係，建構集集鎮災後重建景觀格局系統動態方程，模擬集集鎮未來發展。實證研究發現：環境保護、土地類型面積變化中，維持現況發展為最優選；適當的產業活動將有效改善生活品質與景觀格局的變動，維持高經濟成長與環境保護之間必須取得平衡並加以省思及控管。以景觀格局優化為目標，中度產業發展為最佳選擇；一級、三級產業用地面積之間的消長需要透過嚴謹的都市計畫審議，不同的嵌塊體大小與組合方式將有助於景觀格局和諧發展。高經濟所得為目標下，高度產業成長為最佳選擇；產業活動熱絡不僅帶來高所得的經濟環境，但負面價值環境保護方面必須加以管控，期望創造高收入低汙染的經濟活動。研究結果顯示：本研究內容實屬可行及可操作；災後重建景觀格局需要多面向整合；以觀光為主的產業發展，必須考量環境汙染與經濟活動影響景觀格局變化；人口流失與遊客湧入之間應尋求平衡，維持良好的環境品質。

關鍵字

系統動態學 ； 模糊德爾菲 ； 景觀格局 ； 災後重建 ； 集集鎮

並列摘要

Ji-Ji County suffered the 921 earthquake, which caused great causalities and damage in 1999. The earthquake disaster resulted in great impact on land use, landscape patterns, and ecological environment of Ji-Ji County. In the earthquake rebuilding process, the destruction of the structures, infrastructure, land re-planning configuration and other major projects are to be implemented. During the rebuilding process, the county is faced with issues such as appropriate urban design, and conservation and recovery of the natural environment. In view of this, this study aimed to discuss the impact of earthquake rebuilding on changes in landscape patterns, and understand the possible changes of the ecosystem of the disaster area brought by the earthquake rebuilding process. This study determined the major impact indicators and constructed the system dynamics model for earthquake rebuilding of landscape patterns of Ji-Ji County. By simulating the development programs for earthquake rebuilding of landscape patterns of Ji-Ji County, the planning strategies were proposed for earthquake rebuilding of landscape patterns of Ji-Ji County. The trends of changes in urban rebuilding were predicted. With landscape patterns of landscape ecology as the basic theory, this study used systems thinking and fuzzy delphi expert questionnaire to establish the impact factor system of earthquake rebuilding landscape patterns of Ji-Ji County. The system dynamics simulation model was used to discuss the causal feedback relationship of the system, establish the system dynamics equation of earthquake rebuilding of landscape patterns of Ji-Ji County, and simulate the future development of Ji-Ji County. The empirical findings were that in environmental protection, regarding changes in the area of types of land, to maintain the status of the development is the most preferred choice. Moreover, appropriate industrial activities will be effective to improve quality of life and changes in landscape patterns. The maintenance of high economic growth and environmental protection must be balanced, considered carefully and controlled. With landscape patterns optimization as the goal, moderate industrial development is the best choice. The fluctuation between the land area for the primary and tertiary industries needs to be considered through rigorous urban planning. Different lot sizes and combinations of land types will contribute to the harmonious development of landscape patterns. With high economic return as the goal, a high degree of industry growth is the best choice. Thriving industrial activities not only bring the economic environment of high returns. Its negative value of environmental protection must be regulated, and economic activities of high revenue and low pollution are expected. The research contents are viable and practical. Earthquake rebuilding of landscape patterns requires the integration of multiple dimensions. The tourism-based industrial development must consider the environmental pollution and the impact of economic activities on changes in landscape patterns. A balance should be reached between population loss and the influx of tourists to maintain a good quality of the environment.

並列關鍵字

system dynamics ； fuzzy delphi ； landscape patterns ； earthquake rebuilding ； Ji-Ji County

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