摘要
本研究以知名品牌（Toyota、Mitsubishi、Nissan）為研究對象，進行銷售分析與預測實證研究。首先進行Toyota、Mitsubishi、Nissan及旗下車款的銷售分析，經本研究針對分析後的銷售模式進行判斷，選擇合適的預測方法進行各品牌及其車款的預測分析，並經過誤差衡量標準評估，檢視預測結果之準確度，以確認預測方法的適用性。其優良的預測結果將可以作為企業未來發展營運策略的重要依據。本研究以時間序列法為主要的預測方法，採用的預測方法分別為：簡單移動平均法、簡單指數平滑法、線性趨勢分析、季節性預測分析及三重指數平滑法。 本研究以Toyota、Mitsubishi與Nissan及其旗下車款在2010年至2016年之間的銷售數據，進行銷售分析與預測實證研究。本研究發現：中型房車具有顯著趨勢銷售表現的車款適合採用線性趨勢分析進行預測探討，且預測其未來的銷售表現有逐漸上升的趨勢，表示中型房車仍有一定程度的成長空間；大型房車亦適合採用線性趨勢分析方法進行預測，其預測結果則有逐年下降的趨勢，表示大型房車在台灣市場逐漸式微；而休旅車的銷售其趨勢亦相當顯著，同樣採用線性趨勢分析進行預測，預測結果顯示休旅車在台灣市場有持續成長的可能性；最後綜合三個品牌在每年度各月份的銷售預測，以三重指數平滑法分析的預測結果準確度較佳，且從結果得以發現在1月與7月銷售量表現較佳，而2月與8月銷售量之表現較為低迷。因此上述的品牌及車款，其預測方法的選擇及預測結果將可做為未來企業在發展營運策略之重要依據。
並列摘要
This study is concerned with sales analysis and prediction of empirical research, well-known brands (Toyota, Mitsubishi, Nissan) of automobiles. First of all Toyota, Mitsubishi, Nissan and its car sales analysis, the study of the analysis of the sales model for the judge, select the appropriate forecasting methods for the brand and there vehicle forecast analysis, and error measurement standards assessment, view predict the accuracy of the results to confirm the applicability of the forecasting method.Its excellent forecast results will be used as an important basis for the future development of business strategy.In this study, the time series method is used as the main prediction method.The prediction methods are as follows:Simple Time Series Techniques、Simple Exponential Smoothing、Trend Analysis Method 、Seasonal Analysis Method 、Triple Exponentially Smoothing. In this study, sales analysis and forecasting of Toyota, Mitsubishi and Nissan and its sales figures between 2010 and 2016 were conducted.The study found that: medium-sized car with a significant trend of sales performance of the vehicle suitable for the use of linear trend analysis to predict and forecast its future sales performance has gradually increased trend, said medium-sized car there is still a certain degree of growth space;Which is suitable for the use of linear trend analysis method to predict, the forecast results are declining trend, indicating that large-scale car in Taiwan market gradually declining; and the sale of the trend of the ride is also quite significant, the same linear trend analysis to predict the results Showing the possibility of sustainable growth in the market in Taiwan market; finally the three brands in the annual sales forecast for each month, with triple index smoothed analysis of the results of the prediction accuracy is better, and the results can be found in January and July sales better performance, and February and August sales of the performance is relatively low. Therefore, the choice of the above-mentioned brands and vehicles, the choice of forecasting methods and the forecast results will be used as an important basis for future business development strategy.
參考文獻
4.U-Car汽車雜誌（2010-2016），各月份汽車銷售報告。旭傳媒科技股份有限公司。
17.張保隆、陳文賢等人（2011），生產管理，第四版。華泰文化事業股份有限公司。
8.台灣區車輛工業同業公會（2017），台灣機車業概況，汽車相關統計資料。
12.沈秋延（2014），銷售分析與預測實證研究－以X公司產品為例。朝陽科技大學企業管理所碩士論文。
2.Donlebell and Krasner, O. J.（1977） Selecting environmental forecasting from business planning requirements. Academy of Management , (99)19, 373-383.