觀光產業是全球性產業,對於一國創造經濟收益與就業人口扮演重要的角色。台灣觀光的發展奠基於民國45年,近年則因「觀光客倍增計畫」與「觀光拔尖領航方案」的推行,帶動入境旅客市場的快速成長。近年隨著陸客來台人數的下滑,開發新南向旅遊市場,成為台灣觀光成長的另一契機。本文以時間數列方法,建構馬來西亞和新加坡預測模型,經由認定、估計、診斷與修正檢定等過程,馬來西亞與新加坡入境觀光模型分為ARIMA(1,0,1)(0,1,1)12和 (1,0,0)(1,1,0)12。 研究主要目的是在瞭解入境臺灣觀光旅遊市場需求之現況,以新加坡與馬來西亞遊客為例,並建立最配適之人次預測模型分析以預測其旅客人次來台增減趨勢,期望提供相關主管單位作為經營管理評估、分析的參考資料。以此預測2017年至2018年馬來西亞與新加坡入境觀光人數,預測結果顯示馬來西亞入境觀光仍有相當成長空間,新加坡來台旅遊成長趨緩。建議相關單位可以在兩國來台旅遊淡季多做一些促銷活動或舉辦活動,以增加入境觀光人數,帶動台灣國內旅遊市場的成長。 關鍵字:入境觀光、ARIMA、需求預測
The tourism industry is a global industry and plays an important role in creating economic benefits and employment for a country. The development of tourism in Taiwan is based on year 1956. In recent years, the rapid growth of the inbound passenger market has been driven by the implementation of the (Plan for the Doubling of Tourist Arrivals) and (Project Vanguard For Excellence In Tourism). Due to the decline in the number of passengers to Taiwan, the developing of a new south tourism market, may act as a another opportunity grow for Taiwan tourism. In this research, the time series method will be constructing the Malaysia and Singapore forecast model, through identification, estimation, diagnosis and correction test process. The Malaysian and Singaporean Immigration Sightseeing Models are ARIMA(1,0,1)(0,1,1)12和 (1,0,0)(1,1,0)12. By forecasting the entering number of Malaysian and Singaporean tourist from year 2017 to year 2018, the results show that there is still considerable growth for Malaysia's tourism, while Singapore's tourism growth is slightly slowing down. There for suggested that the relevant units can do some promotional activities or activities in the low season of the two countries to increase the number of sightseeing tourists and promote the growth of the domestic tourism market. Keyword: ARIMA, Arrival tourism, Requirement forecasting.