股利變動、盈餘及現金流量之關聯性變動

THE RESEARCH ON THE RELATIONSHIP AMONG DIVIDEND CHANGES, EARNINGS AND CASH FLOW

連思雯(Szu-Wen Lien)

指導教授 ： 陳瑞璽

大同大學/經營設計學院/事業經營學系所/碩士(2007年)

摘要

我國資本市場環境及發放股利與其他國家有些許不同。故本研究欲探討我國在股利政策是否具有彈性及其影響因素。管理者基於個人利益考量，難免會選擇對自己有利但對股東、債權人、利害關係人不利的行為。盈餘管理即為其中可能行為之一，使財務報表所報導的盈餘有失真的可能性。除了報告盈餘，本文之研究因此特別使用現金流量與未管理盈餘來探討股利變動之影響因素及訊號效果。本文以股利「減少、維持、增加」三個不同股利政策設立排序之變數作為被解釋變數，使用ordered probit model分析公司股利政策之決定因素。本文估計結果，當前期(t-1)盈餘(NI1_S)愈大，本期(t)股利亦會愈大，且未管理盈餘(UME)比盈餘(NI)具有較高之股利變動解釋力；現金流量(CF)對股利的解釋力比盈餘──不論盈餘(NI)或未管理盈餘(UME)來得更好。本文亦驗證台灣之公開發行公司是否極不願意停發股利以及驗證股利之停發是否受到長期的盈餘持續不振所影響。實證結果，台灣上市公司的股利政策比英美2國上市公司的股利政策來的有彈性。

關鍵字

股利政策 ； 未管理盈餘 ； 現金流量

並列摘要

The capital market environment and dividend regulation in Taiwan are different from other countries. This research wants to investigate the flexibility of dividend policy in Taiwan and its influencing factors. Earnings management is one of the possible behaviors for managers to pursue their own interest. It makes the earnings reported on financial statements distorted. In addition to reported earnings, this study especially uses cash flow and unmanaged earnings to examine the influencing factors of the dividend changes. We examine whether the decision to increase, maintain or reduce dividends depends on past earnings (or cash flow or unmanaged earnings). We find some evidences to support our hypothesis and the explanation power of unmanaged earnings is larger than reported earnings. We also investigate whether Taiwanese firms are more reluctant to omit and cut dividends and whether continuous earnings losses are a key factor for dividend omissions. Most of the estimated results are consistent with our expectations. Empirical evidence shows there is a substitute relation between stock dividend and cash dividend.

並列關鍵字

dividend policy ； unmanaged earnings ； cash flow

參考文獻

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