盈餘管理向來是大家關切議題,長久以來專注於公司盈餘與股價間關連性研究之證券分析師、公司管理階層及投資人近年來轉移焦點於盈餘品質。常見用於進行盈餘管理的方法有很多種,本文參考Chan, Chan, Jegadeesh and Lakonishok (2006)衡量裁決性應計組成項目之方法計算裁決性應計組成項目 (應收帳款、存貨及應付帳款變動數) 及非裁決性應計組成項目,以驗證裁決性應計項目組成(應收帳款、存貨及應付帳款)是否具預測股票未來報酬之能力。 實證結果如下:一、盈餘變動向來被認為對股票報酬具有極大影響力,本文發現應計項目之大小會影響盈餘變動與股票報酬之相關程度。二、應計項目之細部組成如存貨、應付帳款及應收帳款皆與未來股票報酬呈負向關係,尤其以存貨最為明顯。三、裁決性應計項目組成(應收帳款、存貨及應付帳款)具有預測未來股票報酬之能力。
Earnings management has been the subject that everyone concerns. Security analysts, firm managers, and investors all pay a great deal of attention to the relation between firms’ reported earnings and stock prices. Following Chan, Chan, Jegadeesh and Lakonishok (2006), we measure the components of discretionary accruals to carry out our empirical study. Changes in accounts receivable, inventory and accounts payable are the components of accruals. This study investigates the relation between components of accruals and future stock returns. The empirical results are summarized as follows: 1. Accruals have the influence on the relation between earnings change and the stock returns. 2. Inventory, accounts receivable and accounts payable are negatively related to future stock returns. 3. The discretionary components of accruals (accounts receivable, inventory and accounts payable) have predictive power for future stock returns.
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