房宅逆向抵押貸款轉換為老年退休生活年金模擬分析

Simulation Analysis of The Home Equity Reverse Mortgage Transferred Retirement Annuity

黎淑娟(Shu-Chuan Li)

指導教授 ： 陳淑賢

中臺科技大學/管理學院/健康產業管理研究所/碩士(2011年)

摘要

人口結構的改變，需透過更多途徑來改善社會養老福利，減輕家庭老人扶養的沉重壓力和彌補現有社會福祉的嚴重不足。歐美國家針對老年人提出了一項退休金計畫方案─「房宅逆向抵押貸款(Reverse Mortgage，簡稱RM)」，即利用房宅抵押提供退休金，使老年人可以利用其房屋取得生活所需之金錢。
本研究乃運用數學模型做模擬分析導向,再採用隨機模型應用於房產中具備逆向抵押權之性質，然而公平交易突破點在於對生命存續期限之不確定性及房產價格不穩定性等考量，另外對貸款利率變化等重大影響之風險因子尋求較精準的推估，並避免在有生之年財富耗盡之風險。
文內研究計算所得替代率和每月年金數值結果，取決於退休前所得、房價升值率、利率、死亡率、期初房屋估計值五類參數資料，故其代表性和處理方式則相當重要。除了利率、死亡率可能較無代表性問題外，其餘3 參數資料可能都還有要改進的地方
本篇貢獻主要在於運用模擬分析求解房屋報酬模擬值,再延伸求出最佳用盡財富時點模擬值,進而求出每年領取年金的損益平衡模擬值,使一些年老擁有多數房地產但卻現金或存款不足之退休人員，提供其獲得每月開支之基本費用來源，又無需搬離熟悉的居住處所之房地產可能產生風險作事前評估。同時，提供抵押貸款機構在簽訂逆向抵押權與支付年金數額間之參考。

關鍵字

模擬分析 ； 房宅逆向抵押權 ； 押押貸款 ； 生命存續期限 ； 隨機模型

並列摘要

Due to human structure changes, more and more elder people are in the society. In order to improve social retirement welfare for elder people, and cut down the heavy burden for young couple to maintain a family which has elder people. Some European and American countries provides a retirement plan─Reverse Mortgage (RM). That is to use real estate owned by the elder people to apply for loan to cover their retirement expense, in other words, this policy is to let the elder people secure living expense by their real estate without moving away from they live now.
This research will apply astochastic model as a prelimary study and use a stochastic model to the home equity which may be suitable for reverse mortgage. Nevertheless, the bottleneck of the fair trade of this model is mainly due to the uncertainty of life cycle for individual person, and instability of real estate price in the market. In addition, the variation of rates of loan has to be estimated more accurately to avoid the risk of wealth exhaustion.
Our study calculates obtained substitution rate and monthly paid annuity, these values are detemined by five parameters, including income before retirement, house price revaluation rate, interest rate, death rate, and opening house estimated value. Among these five parameters, interest rate and death are objective, as for the other three parameters, they can be further modified for more real situation.
The main contribution of this paper is to use simulation analysis to find a suitable house return value and a simulation value when properties are all gone, as a result, a profit and loss balanced simulation value of annuity can be obtained.One of the contributions of this research is to provide an alternative way to earn some income to support their monthly expense for those elder people who own a lot real estate but less deposit in the bank. In addition, these people do not have to leave where they live now under the risk of moving somewhere they are not familiar with. At the same time this research also provides the mortgage loan organization some references before they sign reversion mortgage and the amount of annuity they should pay to the loan applicants.

並列關鍵字

stochastic model ； Simutlation Analysis ； Reverse mortgage

參考文獻

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