觀光旅遊活動具有淡旺季之特性,其中季節變動對旅遊產業影響甚大,對旅遊活動之需求亦具直接衝擊性,因此,研究旅遊需求時應考慮需求彈性在不同季節所產生的差異。亞洲地區旅遊市場皆為我國國人出國主要旅遊目的地,將此地區為做研究對象。本研究由分析歷年國人赴亞洲國家旅遊地之需求狀況,並建立具季節差異之國人出國旅遊需求體系模型,透過對文獻上實證模型設定的修正,將季節差異效果、經濟及環境衝擊等因素導入需求函數,並與不考慮上述因素之需求體系,進行模型配適度之比較,以求得國人赴亞洲各旅遊地區間之自身、交叉價格彈性與所得彈性。 本文以固定彈性需求體系(Constant Elasticity Demand System)為基礎, 不直接設定效用函數, 透過一階微分近似法(First-order Differential Approximation)導出需求體系,並於需求體系中加入季節變動、亞洲金融風暴及SARS 期間虛擬變數,採用似乎無關聯迴歸法(Seeming Unrelated Regression)估計國人赴亞洲旅遊需求體系。將上述所得之結果與未加入上述因素之需求體系,透過殘差均方根(RMSE:Root Mean Square Error),進行模型模擬能力之比較。研究結果顯示自身價格彈性部份,五個旅遊國家皆呈現負向;交叉彈性部份,國人對於新加坡之旅遊需求與日本、馬來西亞和香港,以及泰國與馬來西亞之旅遊需求呈現顯著之替代關係,無呈現互補關係;支出彈性部份,日本、香港、馬來西亞與新加坡為旅遊支出之正常財,泰國為旅遊支出之劣等財。加入虛擬變數之需求體系對資料的配適效果為佳,亦即,國人赴亞洲旅遊需求體系顯著存在季節差異。
The research is analyzed the demand system of Taiwanese outbound tourism in Asia. To focus on establishing a Taiwanese outbound Asia tourism demand system model taking into account seasonal variation effects. The settings of the model will be adjusted according to the verification obtained from documentary evidence. The seasonal variation effects, economic and environmental factors lead to an inverse demand function and demand system restrictions. The research seeks to obtain Taiwanese outbound Asia tourism and an intersecting price flexibility coefficient. This research plans to make use of the constant elasticity demand system as the basis, and with indirect setting effectiveness functions, passing through first-order differential approximation leading to the demand system. Within the demand system, add seasonal, Asian economic crisis, and SARS variation regulatory items. At the same time add every parameter that has restrictive requirements to the seasonal variation requirements. Adopt seeming unrelated regression estimation for Taiwanese outbound tourism demand system. From the results obtained above and the out of season variation demand system, pass through RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) and Theil’s inequality coefficient, and carry out a comparison of model simulation capabilities. The end result shows that in the own-price elasticity aspect, five travel countries all appear negative. Cross elasticity aspect, Singapore and Japan, Malaysia and Hong Kong are substitution effect. Thailand and Malaysia are substitution effect, too. No complement effect in each other countries. Japan, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Singapore are the normal goods of travel expenditure, and Thailand is inferior goods. Than the added seasonal dummy effects demand system fit data better than traditional demand system. In other words, it can be said that seasonal variation effects is existed.