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  • 學位論文

我國上市上櫃電子產業財務危機預警模型之研究

A Study on Financial Alert Model For the Listed and OTC Electronic Industry in Taiwan

指導教授 : 歐仁和
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摘要


本論文的主要目的在於探討影響電子產業財務危機發生機率的變數研究,財務危機預測的重要性在於,不僅可以讓投資大眾能及早發現危機企業,更可以給予相關利益關係人作為參考的重要依據。 過去學者預測企業發生財務危機,主要皆利用財務比率進行研究,但除了財務狀況因素外,公司治理特性也是一重大原因。故本篇論文除了傳統的財務比率變數之外,再加入了公司治理變數進行探討。其樣本是選取於1999年至2004年間,在台灣經濟新報資料庫所記載之上市上櫃且資料完整之公司,包含了50家財務正常公司及25家財務危機公司共75家公司,其中財務危機公司之定義為凡上市上櫃公司發生全額交割、停止交易、終止上市,則認定為財務危機公司。 實證部份首先進行各指標變數的基本統計分析,接著將變數進行因素分析後,代入Logistic模型,建立(1)財務比率變數、(2)包含財務比率變數及公司治理變數的雙指標共兩個模型,進行探討財務危機發生之機率預測。運用2005年度之保留樣本進行測試,結果發現在財務比率模型下,財務危機公司之預測正確率為58.3%,而在加入公司治理模型下,所得到的財務危機公司之預測正確率達79.2%,明顯的上升20.9%。由此結論可得知,對於上市上櫃電子產業,單單以財務比率作為研究變數,已無法正確的判斷出財務危機,因此加入非財務變數的判斷,以財務危機作為判定基礎,並使用公司治理為輔助參考,可較正確判斷正常公司及財務危機公司,因此本文之研究結果,可作為未來社為大眾、投資人及相關利益關係人,研究電子產業財務危機的參考依據。

並列摘要


The purpose of this dissertation is to discuss the factors which can affect the occurrences of financial crisis of organization. The importance of anticipating financial crisis can not only let the corporation self-diagnose, but also grant the financial institutes abilities to evaluate the interest rate when they are conducting the loaning process. The sample of this research is base on the TEJ database from 1999 to 2004. This sample has the complete data of 75 companies including 50 normal companies and 25 companies, which are under financial crisis. The term of "under financial crisis" is defined as " full-delivery, temporary- suspend and stopping-suspension stocks. First, I conduct the simple t-test. The result of simple t-test we have the evidences to prove the financial ratios are different between normal companies and companies under financial crisis. Then, by using the logistic model, I established two models to anticipate the possibilities of occurrence of financial crisis. Although lowering the cut point can reduce the accuracy of anticipation of normal companies, it can increase the accuracy of anticipation for those companies under financial crisis. At mean time, I found that adding the corporate governance factor into this model does increase the accuracy for the anticipation. In the combined financial index model and corporate governance index model, when the cut point is set to 0.5, the accuracy to anticipate the financial crisis companies is up to 79.2%. Through the evidence shown we know corporate governance is also a main factor, which can also cause the financial crisis.

參考文獻


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