現金流量組成要素與盈餘預測

Cash Flow Components and Earnings Forecast

林芳羽(Fang-Yu Lin)

指導教授 ： 張眾卓

亞洲大學/管理學院/財務金融學系/碩士(2011年)

摘要

本研究探討臺灣在直接法揭露營業現金流量組成要素下，是否為財務報表使用者提供增額資訊內涵。本研究將盈餘拆解為應計項目及營業現金流量組成要素，再將營業現金流量組成要素區分為從客戶那收到之現金收入、付款予供應商與員工的現金支出、所得稅費用、支付利息、已收利息、已收股息、其他收入及其他費用等八項組成要素，比較總額營業現金流量之總額模型與營業現金流量組成要素之拆解模型，二模型的未來盈餘解釋能力。
實證結果發現，拆解模型具較高的盈餘解釋力與預測能力。另外，本研究以裁決性應計項目與流動裁決性應計項目絕對值作為盈餘管理之代理變數，依中位數將樣本區分為高盈餘管理與低盈餘管理公司；並將樣本公司區分為上市與上櫃公司兩樣本組。實證結果亦印證，拆解模型比總額模型具有較高的盈餘預測能力。此發現將有助於提供資訊使用者瞭解採用何種資訊有助於未來現金流量之預測，進一步作為評估企業價值、投資或授信決策之參考依據；再者，本研究支持直接法揭露營業現金流量下，較具增額資訊內涵，此亦可提供政府擬定企業財務揭露規範之參考。

關鍵字

現金流量組成要素 ； 盈餘預測 ； 直接法 ； 應計項目

並列摘要

This paper discusses whether or not incremental information contents are provided to financial statements users when the direct method is used to disclose the components of operating cash flow in Taiwan. In this study, the earnings are disaggregated to the cash flow of operating activities and the components of accrued items. In addition, the components of cash flow of operating activities consist of cash receipts from customers, cash paid to suppliers and employees, income tax expense, interest payment, interest received, dividends received, other income and other expenses. We also compare the aggregate models of total net operating cash flow and the disaggregated models of components of net operating cash flow and their future earning explanatory capability.
The empirical results demonstrate that the disaggregated models show higher explanatory power and predictive ability for future earnings. According to the median of discretionary accruals or discretionary current accruals, the sample companies further are divided to high earnings management firms and low earnings management firms. Moreover, the sample companies are divided to listed companies and over-the-counter companies. The empirical results also indicate that the disaggregated models demonstrate higher earning predictive ability. These findings can provide users with information that is helpful for future cash flow predictions. Such information can also be used as reference for enterprise value evaluation, investment or loan decision. Furthermore, the direct method aims to disclose operating cash flow, which is provided with incremental information contents. The results can also be used as reference material that can help government authorities formulate financial disclosure regulations.

並列關鍵字

Cash flow components ； earnings forecast ； direct method ； Accruals

參考文獻

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