Three maps for navigating the ocean of alternative futures

Dennis List

《Journal of Futures Studies》 8卷2期 (2003/11) Pp. 55-63

並列摘要

This paper presents three maps or extended metaphors of the human future:as a hemisphere,as a bamboo thicket,and asfish in a river.The hemispherical model,inspired by Inayatullah's Causal Layered Analysis,plots drivers of change on four levels of successivelygreater inertia:events,intentions,values,and worldview.The thesis here is that events are influenced by intentions,intentions by values,and values by worldview.Events change constantly;intentions change every few years;values change perhapsover ten years,and new worldviews,being a permanent characteristic of individuals,emerge once in a generation.Becauseeach successive level changes more slowly,the general direction that a human future will take-if not its precise details-can beknown in advance.The”bamboo thicket”map reveals the collectivity human futures by displaying the interlinking of holonic systems.Asthe future of an entity is mediated through the future of its neighhour,studying the actors through which this mediation occursis an aid to anticipating the entity's future.The”fish in the river”map places futures as three independent dimensions:time,uncertainty,and striving.An entity canbe represented in this river-space in multiple ways,through the perceptions(actual or believed)of related actors or stakeholders.The implication of using this approach to multiple maps is that,by switching their attention between the different viewpointsillustrated in these maps,participants in futures workshops are helped to attain greater insight into the shared aspects oftheir futures.