公民投票與人民的選擇－解讀2004年總統大選出口民調

Referendum and People's Choice-Reading of the Exit Poll of 2004 Presidential Campaign

李慧馨(Hui-Hsin Lee) ； 王詠宣(Yung-Hsuan Wang)

《藝術學報》 79期 (2006/10) Pp. 189-213

https://doi.org/10.6793/JNTCA.200610.0019

摘要

The first referendum in the history of presidential campaign in Taiwan was held together with 2004 presidential campaign. This referendum had caused the conspiracy between US, China and Taiwan while pan blue parties accused of 「referendum ties with campaign」which caused protest. The consequence of referendum was denied for voting tickets below 50% which had not met the legal rule. The purpose of this study is to explore the influences of television debate, propaganda of advertisings and pan-blue parties propaganda against referendum to people's choice of pro or con referendum and their choice of the president. This study was an exit poll which was held at eleven exits of randomly assigned voting places. 1781 person were effectively interviewed. This study has found that people whose media use less or using television debate less had leaned toward picking out referendum tickets, the significance is p＜.001, and people whose media use or using television debate more had leaned toward not picking out referendum tickets which significance is p＜.001. The province, sex and age have impacts on the decision of referendum, the significance is p＜.05, while the association between party, media use or television debate use and referendum is very high, p＜.001.

關鍵字

總統大選 ； 公民投票 ； 出口民調 ； 媒介使用 ； 政治傳播 ； 民意

並列摘要

The first referendum in the history of presidential campaign in Taiwan was held together with 2004 presidential campaign. This referendum had caused the conspiracy between US, China and Taiwan while pan blue parties accused of 「referendum ties with campaign」which caused protest. The consequence of referendum was denied for voting tickets below 50% which had not met the legal rule. The purpose of this study is to explore the influences of television debate, propaganda of advertisings and pan-blue parties propaganda against referendum to people's choice of pro or con referendum and their choice of the president. This study was an exit poll which was held at eleven exits of randomly assigned voting places. 1781 person were effectively interviewed. This study has found that people whose media use less or using television debate less had leaned toward picking out referendum tickets, the significance is p＜.001, and people whose media use or using television debate more had leaned toward not picking out referendum tickets which significance is p＜.001. The province, sex and age have impacts on the decision of referendum, the significance is p＜.05, while the association between party, media use or television debate use and referendum is very high, p＜.001.

並列關鍵字

presidential campaign ； referendum ； exit poll ； media use ； political communication ； public opinion

參考文獻

王石番(1995)。民意理論與實務。台北:黎明文化。

公民投票法　中華民國九十二年十二月三十一日華總一義字第○九二○○二四二○三一號令公布全文六十四條

中華日報(2004/02/03)

林東泰(1997)。大眾傳播理論。台北:師大書苑。

翁秀琪(1996)。大眾傳播理論與實證。台北:三民書局。