流感大流行備戰策略之系統模擬

Simulation of Intervention-Strategy Effects of Influenza Pandemic

陳慧芬(Hui-Fen Chen) ； 黃開義(Kai-I Huang) ； 吳克原(Ke-Yuan Wu)

《先進工程學刊》 7卷4期 (2012/10) Pp. 213-219

https://doi.org/10.29948/JAE.201210.0010

摘要

我們建構以台灣人口為範圍的流感大流行模擬器來預測不同備戰策略下的疾病侵襲率。模擬模式是採用Longini（2004）等人提出的的模式，我們使用台灣2008年的人口資料來建構人口模式並使用2007年的火車搭乘資料來建構人口流動的模式。為了提高模擬實驗的速度，以一個模擬個體代表一千人來進行模擬實驗，單次模擬時間長度是180天，即流感高峰期的六個月。模擬實驗結果顯示備戰策略可有效降低流感侵襲率，而且，針對一定比率之18歲以下小孩子施打疫苗的效益比隨機施打的效益高，且可節省疫苗成本。

關鍵字

流感大流行 ； 流感模擬器 ； 接觸與傳染機率 ； 備戰策略

並列摘要

In this research, an influenza-pandemic simulator based on Taiwan population to predict attack rates under various intervention strategies is developed. The simulation is based on Longini et al. (2004) model. We model the Taiwan population based on the 2008 real population data and model the infection due to traveling based on the 2007 real railway transportation data in Taiwan. Simulation runs are also conducted where each running length is 180 days, 6 months of influenza peak activity. To fasten the simulation speed, one simulation entity represents 1000 persons. Simulation results show that the intervention strategies can reduce attack rates significantly. Furthermore, vaccinating a proportion of children under age 18 is more effective than random vaccination and can reduce the vaccination cost as well.

並列關鍵字

influenza pandemic ； influenza simulator ； transmission probability ； intervention strategies