影響房價變動因素之系統動態模擬（兼論奢侈稅）

System Dynamic Simulation of the Effect of a Luxury Taxon Real Estate Prices

魏文欽(Wen-Chin Wei) ； 郭宗諭(Tsung-Yu Kuo)

《International Journal of Lisrel》 5卷1期 (2012/03) Pp. 31-49

https://doi.org/10.30063/IJL.201203.0002

摘要

房地產市場在本質上具有動態性、因果性及回饋性等特性，即具備了動態性複雜的特性，正好符合系統動力學所能解決之問題，因此本研究透過系統動態模式之模擬，可探究在供給、需求與價格間環環相扣的關係下，改變房地產價格造成市場波動之因素及效果，作為解決房地產市場衍生問題之方法。政府的政策為影響房地產市場景氣變動的重要因素，稅賦的變動調整往往會影響整個房地產市場的供需變化，房屋營建相關產業向來為景氣的火車頭，因此，在稅賦調整與經濟發展之間的變動與取捨，國家政策必須有周延的規畫，並有足夠的配套措施以資因應。研究發現，針對房地產投資課徵特種銷售稅，購買非自用住宅短期買賣者，無論投資賺賠都要課「交易稅」，可促使房市恢復理性交易及穩定經濟。總體而言，奢侈稅對台灣房地產市場有兩個重要的意義；一個是讓投機者不再短線炒作，讓市場回歸自住與投資的正常需求；另一個是透過這個新稅制，讓政府可以取得真正的房屋交易價格，使房地產市場運作更趨健全透明。惟要穩定房地產市場，政府應該提出具體的住宅政策，奢侈稅其效用只是短期且非全面性的抑制房價的非理性追高，並無法解決實質性結構的問題，從模擬結果可知，短期非通盤性的政策實施可能對長期的價格變動趨勢造成負面影響，因此當決策者在研擬相關政策時，應以系統思考方式分析問題，畢竟房地產的供需與價格變動間存在環環相扣的因果關係，政策實施不應著眼於短期效果為其評估績效之標準，除應同時考量長短期之政策效果外，應評估建立以投機買賣行為對象之常態性且能有效抑制投資客過渡炒作之課稅方式，並衡量其對房市發展之影響。

關鍵字

奢侈稅 ； 房價 ； 系統動力學

並列摘要

Essentially, the real estate market is dynamic, and has a causal effect and feedback relationship. In other words, this market entails dynamic complexity, which can best be tackled with system dynamics. As such, this study is a simulation of the system dynamic model to explore the factors affecting fluctuation of real estate prices in the market under the interactions of supply, demand, and prices, and the effect of such change. This model is an attempt to solve problems deriving from the real estate market.Government policy is a vital factor affecting the dynamics of the real estate market. Changes and adjustments to taxation tend to affect the overall supply and demand of the real estate market. In general, industries related to real estate construction are the engine driving economic growth. As such, there will be a trade-off between tax adjustment and economic development. Similarly, the state must cautiously map out its policy with sufficient supporting measures. Recent studies have indicated that a special sales tax is applicable to investment in real estate while the short-term purchase and sale of residential properties not for self-consumption should be subject to an ”exchange tax” regardless of investment gains or losses. This measure will help to revitalize the rational trading of real estate and maintain economic stability. In general, the levy of a luxury tax on the real estate market of Taiwan is meaningful in two ways: it will prevent short-term speculation so that the market can be operated under normal trading of self-consumed residential properties and investment, and obtain real prices for the trading of real properties by the government. This will make the operation of the real estate market transparent and healthy. However, the government should launch a concrete residential premises policy in order to stabilize real estate market prices. The application of the luxury tax can yield short-term effects, and this partial high-hand policy to suppress real estate prices from irrational rises cannot solve the real structural problem. The results of the simulation indicate that short-term and partial policy may yield a negative effect on the long-term trend of prices. As such, the authorities should address the problem through systemic thinking and analysis in making related policy because supply, demand and real estate prices are interrelated. The policy should not aim at just short-term results in performance but also as a remedy in the long run. Therefore, the government should institute a taxation system aiming at containing excessive speculation in real estate trades and assess the effect of such a system on the healthy development of the real estate market.

並列關鍵字

luxury tax ； real estate prices ； system dynamics