本文的目的在以攻勢現實主義的觀點,檢視歐巴馬執政以來的美國亞太戰略發展。因應後冷戰時期百家齊放的國際關係理論觀點,攻勢現實主義堅持現實主義學派傳統之餘,淬取古典現實主義與結構現實主義的精華,進而成為備受矚目的一方觀點,其代表人物米爾斯海默更被視為「頭號現實主義者」。米氏所描繪的大國行為規律以及預測,亦成為觀察國際政治現象的重要觀察指標。歐巴馬執政以來的美國亞太戰略的發展,反映在美國對於亞太區域的高調重視,其「全球戰略重心東移」的意涵更涉及大國間的互動以及亞太乃至全球秩序的重整,自是引發外界的高度重視。本文的研究結果顯示,當前美國的亞太戰略發展,相當符合攻勢現實主義的若干觀點:首先,目標上遏制中國崛起以確認其亞太區域領導地位;再者,實踐上更體現「境外平衡者」的作為。最後,把握理論的啟示,本文強調,觀察當前的華府作為,必須審慎地認知到歐巴馬政府「實用主義」的一面。
The research purpose of this article is to analyze the development of the Asia-Pacific strategy of the Obama Administration via offensive realism.The theory of realism has been seriously challenged after the Cold War. In its history over 80 years, large number of masters of academic distinction, among whom John J. Mearsheimer is such a new distinctive scholar, have supported the realist school of international relations. Based on some realist and neorealist assumptions and the modification of these assumptions, offensive realism presents the capability of much more explaining and analyzing international politics.With the rising of the Asia Pacific region in the 21st century, America's strategic center is turning to the East. The Obama Administration's strategy of its eastward shift will inevitably have an significant impact on the interaction between great powers.This research shows that the development of the Asia-Pacific Strategy of the Obama Administration is quite consistent with the main viewpoints of offensive realism. The goal of the Obama Administration is to constraint China in order to sustain and strengthen America's leadership in the Asia-Pacific region. Therefore, offshore balancing is an important strategy to maintain its preponderance. According to practical theoretical meanings, we must not ignore the pragmatism of the Obama Administration.
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