Recent arguments suggest that IPO firms are less risky than non-IPO firms and thus have lower long-run returns. Yet for any firms to be fundamentally less risky, they must outperform riskier firms with some frequency, especially in bad times. By applying this theory, we find that IPOs rarely outperform non-IPO firms. The few instances of IPO outperformance most often occur in good time. In bad times, IPO firms typically perform worse than matching non-IPO firms. These results are consistent with the notion that IPOs on average are riskier than non- IPO firms.