鄉村的雙重脆弱性：以嘉義縣為例

Rural Double Vulnerability: A Case of Chiayi County

李婷潔(Ting-Jay Lee) ； 彭立沛(Li-Pei Peng)

《農業推廣學報》 31期 (2014/07) Pp. 45-69

https://doi.org/10.29788/RAES.201407_(31).0003

摘要

氣候變遷下極端災害頻傳，了解鄉村脆弱的特性除了有助於找出高脆弱結構的地區，以防患於未然，將更利於發展減緩脆弱性的策略。因都市化與區域發展差異所造成的城鄉人口極化分布，以及環境資源的超限開發與濫用，不僅已被認為是人類社會災害事件頻傳的原因，更被視為是在氣候變遷下鄉村脆弱性的暴露敏感來源。然而，目前學界對於鄉村脆弱性的了解甚少，故本研究嘗試以人口流失和環境退化為暴露敏感來源為中心，建立鄉村雙重脆弱性之分析架構，並輔以實證資料的暴露敏感空間辨識，希冀能進一步了解鄉村地區經歷社會變遷而形成的脆弱現象。有鑑於此，本文以嘉義縣為研究對象，以長期人口遷移模式以及淹水災害的潛勢分布作為社會和自然面的暴露敏感源，嘗試在實證資料的基礎上辨識各鄉鎮市的暴露敏感源分佈特性，據此以評估鄉村脆弱性分析架構的應用性。研究結果初步發現，長期人口遷移的趨勢呈現了關鍵轉折型、連續正值型、波動變化型，以及連續負值型等四種潛在類型，此外各類型的分布展現出空間集中的特性。其中，關鍵轉折型主要分布在都市化的平原區；連續正值型分布在縣治所在地、高鐵轉運樞紐，以及高度都市化的平原區；波動變化型主要集中在高山丘陵區；而連續負值型則主要分布在沿海區。值得注意的是連續負值型的鄉鎮市同時也是長久以來縣內魚塭密度高、淹水與地層下陷等環境災害最為嚴重的地區，故可被歸類為具有自然／社會雙重暴露敏感的脆弱地區。

關鍵字

災害 ； 氣候變遷 ； 鄉村脆弱性 ； 人口遷移 ； 淹水潛勢

並列摘要

Understanding a rural vulnerability is helpful to identify the high-vulnerable area under climate change; and further helps us to develop strategies that mitigate the vulnerability. Urbanization, regional development disparity, polarized population distribution, and overuse of environmental resources are recently viewed as not only the causes of frequent disaster events in human society； but also the causes of rural vulnerability under climate change. However, very little literature in Taiwan discusses the rural vulnerability. This research treated population loss and environment degradation as exposure stressors; and tried to build an analytical framework for rural double vulnerability; finally, we provided some empirical evidence that is helpful to understand the vulnerability phenomenon caused by social changes in rural area. The subject of study is Chiayi County in Taiwan, to understand more about the rural double vulnerability, we studied the patterns of long-term population migration (LPM) represented the social exposure as well as the flood inundation potential distribution as the exposure stressor of environmental disaster. Based on the empirical data, we identified the distribution of different exposure stressors that helps us to evaluate the suitability of analytical framework for rural double vulnerability. The preliminary results were that the LPM tended to manifest four patterns named crucial transformed, continuous positive, fluctuating changed, and continuous negative, respectively. Additionally, the distributions of four patterns show the characteristic of spatial-centered. The locations of LPM clustered together obviously that the crucial transformed pattern was mainly associated with the urbanized plain area; the continuous positive pattern was related to county jurisdiction, high-speed rail station, and highly urbanized plain area；the fluctuating changed pattern was related to the hill and high-mountain area; and the continuous negative pattern was associated with the coast area. Consequently, the municipalities with continuous negative pattern were also the areas where were long-term and high-density fish farms and serious suffered by flood inundation disasters and land subsidence. Hence, we identified these municipalities as the vulnerable areas where are suffered from double-exposure of vulnerability.

並列關鍵字

disaster ； climate change ； rural vulnerability ； population migration ； flood inundation probability