氣候變遷下可能水文情境資料特性分析：以臺南地區為例

Characteristics of Hydrological Variation Under Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study in Tainan

曾宏偉(Hung-Wei Tseng) ； 楊道昌(Tao-Chang Yang) ； 郭振民(Chen-Min Kuo) ； 張廣智(Kuang-Chih Chang) ； 郭純伶(Chun-Ling Kuo) ； 鄭欽韓(Chin-Han Cheng) ； 游保杉(Pao-Shan Yu)

《農業工程學報》 68卷1期 (2022/03) Pp. 25-38

https://doi.org/10.29974/JTAE.202203_68(1).0003

摘要

臺灣主要雨量集中發生於梅雨季與颱風季，一旦梅雨或颱風有偏少或延遲情況，即容易造成用水緊張，故有必要針對梅雨與颱風之特性進行詳細分析。為此，本研究藉由綜合考慮水文變異與氣候變遷影響，推估基期與未來情境下梅雨與颱風之機率密度函數，以探討氣候變遷對於梅雨與颱風之衝擊。其中，為盡可能涵蓋氣候變遷資料之不確定性，本研究採用全部全球環流模式之推估資料作為系集，以進行候變遷衝擊評估，RCP4.5情境下分析結果顯示：針對容易造成用水緊張之「梅雨延遲」情況而言，其發生機率有增加情況，由13.4%增加至14.7%，而總量亦有增加情況，由920 mm增加至992 mm；針對7月雨量偏少之「颱風延遲」情境而言，其發生機率有增加情況，由12.5%增加至14.6%，而總量亦有增加情況，由1,421 mm增加至1,541 mm。

關鍵字

氣候變遷 ； 水文變異 ； 梅雨與颱風

並列摘要

In Taiwan, the majority of rainfall occurs during the mei-yu and typhoon seasons. Delayed or below-normal rainfall in the mei-yu or typhoon season often causes water supply issues, hence it is critical to better investigate the rainfall characteristics in these two seasons. To this end, this study estimated the probability density function of rainfall amount for the both seasons with consideration of hydrological variation and climate change impact. To reflect potential uncertainty from climate change projections, the study applied entire available projections of general circulation models in the impact assessment. A comparison of rainfall characteristics between baseline and RCP4.5 scenario shows: (1) for the delayed situation in the mei-yu season, the probability of occurrence increases from 13.4% to 14.7% and the rainfall amount also increases from 920 mm to 992 mm; (2) for the delayed situation in the typhoon season (i.e., below-normal rainfall in July), the probability of occurrence increases from 12.5% to 14.6% and the rainfall amount also increases from 1,421 mm to 1,541 mm.

並列關鍵字

Climate change ； Hydrological variation ； Mei-yu and typhoon

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