極端氣候早期預警的願付價值估計－以心血管疾病為例

Estimating the Value of Extreme Temperature Early Warning: A Case Study of Cardiovascular Disease

邱皖聆(Wan-Ling Chiu) ； 張靜貞(Ching-Cheng Chang) ； 許家勝(Chia-Sheng Hsu) ； 林詠萱(Yung-Hsuan Lin)

《應用經濟論叢》 107期 (2020/06) Pp. 1-35

https://doi.org/10.3966/054696002020060107001

摘要

氣候變遷造成極端溫度現象發生愈趨頻繁，造成民眾生命損失或心血管相關疾病威脅增加。在各國對氣候變遷減緩的效果有限下，對氣候變遷所造成之各種變化的調適措施就相當重要。已有許多國家開始引進高溫早期預警系統，提醒一般民眾極端高溫（熱浪）發生的資訊，並提供民眾正確的調適建議，協助民眾進行有效的調適行為。本研究利用條件估計法之雙界二元選擇法，設計民眾願付價值之調查問卷，進行早期預警系統潛在經濟效益之評估以及主要影響因素之分析。評估結果顯示願付價格主要受到健康風險認知度、年齡、工作是否與醫護相關等因素之影響，願付價值的估計結果為每人每年願意付出365～368元來獲得健康資訊，約占個人年所得的0.11%。若將願付金額乘上調查母體人口，估算國人每年願意支付約68億元來獲得極端高溫（熱浪）發生的健康預警資訊，這些結果可做為未來建立預警系統以及制訂氣候變遷調適相關策略之參考。

關鍵字

氣候變遷 ； 心血管疾病 ； 早期預警 ； 願付價值 ； 雙界二元選擇法 ； 條件評估法

並列摘要

Climate change has caused extreme temperature phenomena to occur more frequently, leading to rising temperature-related mortality or cardiovascular-related illness worldwide. Due to the limited effect of mitigations, adaptation strategies to the changes induced as a result of climate change have become increasingly important. Many governments introduced early warning systems of extreme temperature to alert the general public to respond to health risks effectively on short timescales. Using double-bounded dichotomous choice contingent valuation method, this study designed a willingness-to-pay questionnaire to assess the potential economic benefits of the early warning systems and to identify major determinant factors. The results showed that health risk perception, age, and working experience in medical care services were the major influencing factors. The model estimated that the average willingness to pay was 365~368 NTD per capita per year, which amounted to 0.11% of personal annual income. Multiplied the sample mean by the population of Taiwan, the total benefits were estimated to be 6.8 billion NTD per year. The results can be used as a reference for establishing early warning systems and formulating relevant strategies for climate change adaptations.

並列關鍵字

Climate Change ； Cardiovascular Disease ； Early Warning ； Willingness to Pay ； Double-Bounded Model ； Contingent Valuation

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