決策不確定之因應策略類型與選擇

本研究旨在探討決策者如何因應決策過程中的不確定，主要議題在於確認真實生活中因應不確定的策略類型及使用時機。本研究首先整理過去文獻所提到關於因應不確定的策略，進而分析這些策略實際被使用的情況。接著，分析決策者理解不確定的概念（作業特性）及達成確定的認識需求和能力（個別差異），對因應策略類型的影響，進而建構五種策略使用選擇的權變模型。為了掌握實際決策的不確定因應行為，研究方法採自然研究分析480份真實決策事件，並以「認知結構需求」與「達成認知結構需求能力」分別測量決策者達成確定的認識需求和能力，組合成為四種認識類型。資料的分析採用對應分析，以處理不同不確定概念與認知類型，對應因應策略之列聯表資料。研究結果顯示實際因應策略(RAFWS)與理論處方(RQP)有不同的分類方式。而就因應策略的選擇權變機制，發現社會認知論最具預測力，亦即是決策者對於所理解不確定的概念及對於達成確定的認知需求決定因應策略的類型，而因應成效則受到符合認知需求類型的能力所調適。

關鍵字

因應決策不確定策略；不確定概念；認知結構需求；達成認知結構需求能力

並列摘要

This study aimed at exploring how decision makers cope with uncertainty during decision making. We examined the patterns of coping strategies and the conditions to use those strategies in real-time. First, we reviewed and categorized varied types of coping strategies in the literature, and then examined how these prescriptive strategies are used in real life. To analyze individual difference in strategic preference, we examined different ways of uncertainty conceptualization, and ability and need for cognitive structuring. Drawing on those factors, we then constructed five contingent models of coping strategy selection. To examine how coping strategies in prescriptive theories are used in real life, we adopted naturalistic method by analyzing 480 decision making scenarios collected from participants' experience. We measured decision makers' ability and need for cognitive structuring, and divided them into 4 archetypes. We used corresponding analysis to study the systematic mapping among uncertainty conceptualization, ability and need for cognitive structuring, and patterns of selected strategies. The result indicates that those uncertainty coping strategies suggested by prescriptive theories are used unequally in real life. The result also supports that social cognition model, which includes individual's perception (uncertainty conceptualization) and motivated cognition (ability and need for cognitive structuring), is of best descriptive power.