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高屏溪流域水資源管理系統動力模型建立與政策模擬分析

A Water Resource System Modeling of the Kao-Ping River Basin and its Management Policy Testing

摘要


針對近年來陸續出現在台灣社會裡的諸多水資源利用與都市成長議題,本研究直指兩者間之關聯性,並以高屏溪流域為研究範圍建立動態模擬模型,從長期的觀點檢視高屏溪流域土地利用、經濟活動、都市發展與水資源系統之關係,以系統動力學為基礎,並用ithink Strategy軟體進行模擬,建構高屏溪流域水資源使用與都市系統模型,隨著系統模型的發展,設計了八個次系統組成。這個研究幫助我們清楚了解,在都市成長和水資源管理系統的變化以及之間的相互依賴性,並以情境分析,針對當前高屏溪流域之水資源與都市發展政策進行政策試驗。 根據本研究模擬之結果顯示,自水資源永續利用觀點,顯然需求管理政策較符合當前永續發展的水資源管理政策,也就是如何從用水需求面、產業發展面或都市成長管理面加強需求管理,故政府在面臨未來愈加嚴重的缺水壓力,採取調高水價、節約用水、產業用水管理、都市成長管理及水權制度建立等需求管理政策,配合產業政策調整、流域及地下水成長管理工具研擬,較能促進水資源永續利用;而相對而言開發新水源或興建水庫等供給管理政策,只是延後問題的發生,是以,有效之水資源管理最終仍需回到需求管理層面,這才是政府解決水資源短缺問題的正途。

並列摘要


This study has tried to approach the urban-environment system of the Kao-Ping River basin by using the system dynamics and ithink Strategy software as the simulation tools. This research incorporates the content of policy test and scenario planning to elaborate the interactions between land use, economic activities, urban development, and the water resource system in Kao-Ping River basin. With the development of the system model comprising eight sub-systems as designed, this research made us clear the system change and the inter-dependence between urban growth and water resource management. The findings not only portray the inter-relationship between natural environment, water resource system and urban growth of Kao-Kao-Ping region, but also magnify the influences on systems if demand-side management is applied. Some policies tests including the various measures on water prices, watershed conservation, water saving, system loss lessening, water rights system and urban growth management have also made. It has been indicate that certain environmental conservation measures as management tools are required if a balance between the urban growth and the environmental sustainability and between the urban development and the efficient water utilization are to be achieved.

參考文獻


Buller, H.(1996).Towards sustainable water management: catchments planning in France and Britain.Land Use Policy.13(4),289-302.
Forrester, J. W.(1969).Urban Dynamics.Cambridge:MIT Press.
Forrester, J. W.(1994).System dynamics, system thinking, and soft OR.System Dynamics Review.1(10),245-256.
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李明益(2002)。河川流域水管理系統動力模式之發展與建立。國立中央大學環境工程研究所。

被引用紀錄


李峰仁(2010)。曾文溪流域水資源用水特性之研究〔碩士論文,長榮大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://doi.org/10.6833%2fCJCU.2010.00160

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