台灣脆弱性指標建構與評估之研究

Vulnerability Indicator, Building and Assessment in Taiwan

李堅明(Chien-Ming Lee) ； 陳建智(Chien-Chih Chen)

《都市與計劃》 37卷1期 (2010/03) Pp. 71-96

https://doi.org/10.6128/CP.37.1.71

摘要

因應氣候變遷之調適政策已成爲木世紀各國追求永續發展的嚴重要課題之一，其中，脆弱性評估是擬定調適政策的重要參考依據。本研究主要目的爲建立台灣氣候變遷的脆弱性指標系統，並檢定指標系統的藕合性(decoupling)以及評估台灣的脆弱性狀態，提供未來調適政策擬定之參考。本研究結果發現：(1)1988年以來，台灣整體脆弱度（總合狀態指數）呈現微量惡化現象：(2)整體脆弱性PSR指標架構間的藕合性高，具有政策回歸饋功能；(3)權重對整體脆弱性評估具敏感性，不同權重設定將影響評估結果。

關鍵字

脆弱性指標 ； 調適政策 ； 單根檢定 ； 共整合檢定

並列摘要

Adaptation policy is a key issue for tackling global climate change, and vulnerability assessment can help governments decide adequate, adaptation policies and measures. This study builds a PSR (Pressure, State, and Response) vulnerable indicator framework in Taiwan, and examines the coupling properties among the various indicators. The analytical results are as follows: (1) Taiwan has suffered vulnerability degradation since 1998; (2) The PSR framework of the vulnerability indicators of Taiwan exhibit a strongly co-integrated, and thus can provide policy feedback; (3) weight selection amongst various dimensions with its component indicators, is sensitive on the performance of the vulnerability indicators system.

並列關鍵字

Vulnerability indicators ； Adaptation policy ； Unit root test ； Co-integration test

參考文獻

Anderson, M. B.,Woodrow, P. J.(1989).Rising from the Ashes: Development Strategies in Times of Disasters.Boulder:Westview.

Bohle, H. G.,Downing, T. E.,Watts, M.(1994).Climate change and social vulnerability: The sociology and geography of food insecurity.Global Environmental Change.4(1),37-48.

EU(2007).Adapting to Climate Change in Europe-Options for EU Action.Brussels:EU.

Moss, R.(1999).Vulnerability to Climate Variability and Change: Framework for Synthesis and Modeling.Washington, DC:Battelle Pacific Northwest National Laboratory.

OECD(1991).Environmental Indicators-A Preliminary Set.Paris:OECD.