今天拆大埔，明天換政府？臺灣民主化後的土地開發與選舉，1993－2015

Will People Evicted Today Evict the Government Tomorrow? Land Development and Votes after the Democratization of Taiwan, 1993-2015

傅偉哲(Wei-Che Fu) ； 林宗弘(Thung-Hong Lin)

《人文及社會科學集刊》 34卷2期 (2022/06) Pp. 315-364

摘要

本文以1993至2015年臺灣縣市層級的土地開發、空間使用以及選舉得票追蹤數據，固定效果迴歸模型驗證土地開發與地方政治關係。實證結果顯示，在理性選擇邏輯下，國民黨籍地方首長執政時，偏好徵收土地、開發住宅、商業與辦公室空間，民進黨則傾向非住宅，例如：工業用地開發；不同的土地與空間開發策略顯著增進兩黨地方選舉的得票率。不同於發展型國家與都市政權理論對戰後臺灣政府開發土地的分析，本文以民主化後的縣市土地開發數據，說明臺灣政府的土地與空間開發策略，是執政者尋求政治結盟，提升政治生存機會的政策工具。

關鍵字

徵收 ； 土地政治 ； 政治結盟 ； 政治生存 ； 民主轉型

並列摘要

The study used county-level panel data in Taiwan from 1993 to 2015 to investigate: could land development improve the probability of ruling elites' political survival? Through the fixed effects regression model examination, we found that (1) comparing to county mayors from Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), mayors from Kuomintang (KMT) inclined to launch land development and stimulate real estate development through housing, and pro-capital spatial development policies; mayors from DPP, contrarily, induced non-housing spatial policies such as industrial development more often; and that (2) both candidates from two political parties got more votes due to their land and spatial developments. We, thus, pointed out the logic of political survival was the main mechanism to explain how the land and spaces were developed in Taiwan after WWII; land and spatial developments were the policies that the political elite manipulated to build their winning coalitions and to maximize the probability of political survival.

並列關鍵字

land expropriation ； land politics ； political realignment ； political survival ； democratization

參考文獻

陳陸輝、耿曙、涂萍蘭、黃冠博 2009　〈理性自利或感性認同？影響台灣民眾兩岸經貿立場因素的分析〉，《東吳政治學報》27(2): 87- 125。（Chen, Lu-Huei, Shu Keng, Ping-Lan Tu, & Kuan-Bo Huang, 2009, “Interest-Driven or Identity-Based? An Analysis of Taiwanese People’s Positions on Cross-Strait Economic Exchanges,” Soochow Journal of Political Science 27(2): 87-125.）

陳瑞清 2019　〈臺灣企業的政黨傾向：立委選舉的政治獻金分析，2008- 2012〉，國立臺灣大學社會學研究所碩士論文。（Chen, Jui-Ching, 2019, “The Political Partisanship of Taiwanese Business: An Analysis of Campaign Contribution in the Legislator Election, 2008-2012,” Master Thesis, Department of Sociology, National Taiwan University.）

陳瑞樺 2016　〈以農之名：臺灣戰後農運的歷史考察〉，《文化研究》22: 75-122。（Chen, Jui-Hua, 2016, “In the Name of the Farmer: A Historical Review of Agrarian Movements in Postwar Taiwan,” Cultural Studies Quarterly 22: 75-122.）

傅彥凱 2006　〈地方政府預算制定之政治經濟分析：政治預算循環的觀點〉，《選舉研究》13(1): 119- 162。（Fu, Yan-Kai, 2006, “The Political-Economic Analysis on the Budgetary Decision-Making in Local Government: The View of Political Budget Cycle,” Journal of Electoral Studies 13(1): 119- 162.）

傅偉哲 2020　〈是「鮭魚」還是「鯊魚」？以追蹤數據評估兩岸貿易對台灣房地產業發展影響〉，發表於第十二屆發展年會。臺北：國立臺灣大學。（Fu, Wei-Che, 2020, “How Did the Cross-Strait Trade Influence Taiwan’s Real Estate Development? An Investigation of Panel Data,” Presented at The 12th Annual Conference of Development. Taipei: National Taiwan University.）