宗教信仰對臺灣年輕成人主觀福祉的影響：貫時性資料的反事實分析

歐美社會研究顯示，宗教參與和個體身心福祉有顯著正相關；但臺灣的經驗資料卻很少呈現有信仰者與無信仰者的主觀福祉具有顯著差異。有論者指出這是宗教參與和主觀福祉之間的正向關聯受自我選擇作用掩蓋所致，因此宗教參與對主觀福祉仍具有正向影響。但由於研究方法的限制，既有研究並未確認宗教參與和主觀福祉之間的因果順序，無法排除「主觀福祉較高的人更傾向參與宗教活動」這項反向因果解釋。有鑑於此，本研究採用臺灣青少年成長歷程研究計畫2011年與2014年所蒐集的兩次面訪調查資料，檢視2011年有宗教信仰者是否2014年的主觀福祉顯著比無宗教信仰者為高；為排除2011年個體宗教信仰狀況的潛在選擇偏誤，本研究在分析中以處理機率倒數加權法（inverse probability of treatment weighting, IPTW）做反事實因果推論。分析結果顯示，經由IPTW後，宗教信仰對於快樂感與生活滿意度的平均處遇效應（average treatment effects, ATE），處遇組平均處遇效應（average treatment effects for the treated, ATT）、控制組平均處遇效應（average treatment effects for the controls, ATC）皆呈正向顯著，意謂在控制選擇偏誤之後，宗教信仰對於臺灣年輕成人主觀福祉確實具有正向效應。

關鍵字

宗教參與；主觀福祉；自我選擇偏誤；反事實推論

並列摘要

According to research conducted in Western societies, religious involvement is significantly and positively associated with subjective well-being (SWB). However, empirical evidence in Taiwan hardly shows significant differences in SWB between people with and without religious affiliation. Researchers argue this was because the analysis of SWB was biased by self-selection, so religious involvement should still have a positive influence on SWB. Nevertheless, due to limitations of research methods, existing research has not confirmed the causal order of religious involvement and SWB and cannot rule out the possible reverse explanation that ＂people with a higher SWB tend to attend religious activities.＂ Accordingly, this research uses survey data collected in the years 2011 and 2014 by the Taiwan Youth Project to examine whether individuals having religious affiliation in 2011 reported a significantly higher SWB in 2014. In order to deal with the potential selection bias on religious affiliation in 2011, the inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) method is used to apply counterfactual inference of the religious function on SWB. Results suggest that, after applying IPTW, all the average treatment effects (ATE), average treatment effects for the treated (ATT), and average treatment effects for the controls (ATC) of religious affiliation on SWB become positively significant, implying religious affiliation has a positive influence on SWB among Taiwanese young adults when selection bias is controlled.

並列關鍵字

religious involvement ； subjective well-being ； self-selection bias ； counterfactual inference

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