區域發展劇變分析－以921南投地震為例

An Analysis of Regional Development Catastrophe – A Case Study of Nan-To County after 921 Earthquake

鄒克萬(Ko-Wan Tsou) ； 張曜麟(Yao-Lin Chang) ； 紀瑞瑛(Rui-Ying Ji)

《規劃學報》 28期 (2001/12) Pp. 89-106

https://doi.org/10.6404/JP.200112.0089

摘要

本研究旨在探討地震災害對區域發展的影響，以南投縣之人口部門為實證研究對象，並運用劇變理論來描述並解讀因環境驟變對現住人口數帶來的衝擊影響。而由人口尖點劇變模型建構的結果顯示，失業率及平均每個人享有政府支出數分別為影響人口數量負向與正向變動的主要因素，而當失業率因地震發生後而呈現大幅提高之狀態時，系統即發生人口數量負向狀態尖點劇變行為。

關鍵字

劇變理論 ； 尖點劇變模型 ； 區域發展 ； 921震災

並列摘要

The objective of this research is to discuss the regional development which was affected by the earthquake disaster, and to take the population sector of Nan-To County as the empirical topic, to utilize catastrophe model to describe and explain the present residential population affected by the catastrophe. According to the result of the catastrophe cusp model, it shows that the unemployment rate and the government expenditure on each person are the two principal factors to the population fluctuation. The fluctuation of population occurs when the unemployment rate increases rapidly due to earthquake.

並列關鍵字

catastrophe theory ； catastrophe cusp model ； regional development ； 921 Earthquake