由前瞻機制看國家未來發展策略型塑

From Foresight Mechanism to Observe National Long-Term Development Formulation

謝雨豆(Yu-Tou Hsieh) ； 李冠樺(Vincent Lee)

《中國行政評論》 25卷4期 (2019/12) Pp. 83-104

https://doi.org/10.6635/cpar.201912_25(4).0004

摘要

前瞻研究為一系統性、講求多方參與性、由未來資訊蒐集到建立中長期發展願景／情境的一連串過程或途徑，最終用以形成未來發展策略與執行方案。而前瞻機制的設計，則是牽涉到國家能否以系統化作為持續精進調整未來發展目標的重要關鍵。面對多變的未來，若能透過情境預見，掌握趨勢發展可能方向，將有助於國家預先準備，面對複雜的未來問題。本研究由跨國的前瞻機制運作經驗觀察，彙整發展前瞻機制的重點作為我國參考。

關鍵字

前瞻機制 ； 前瞻研究 ； 策略前瞻 ； 國家發展

並列摘要

Foresight analysis is a series process of systematic, multi-participation, and a future vision/ scenario formulation that used for decision making of future development. In times of rapid change and uncertainty, establishing a foresight mechanism can help to confirm future analysis be renewed, keep quality, or apply to government policy. The foresight mechanism is relative to analysis process, budget support, task force, application… etc. Also this will help the country to prepare for complex future problems in advance. This research aims to provide suggestions on establish long-term foresight system base on the observation of multinational foresight mechanisms.

並列關鍵字

Foresight mechanism ； future research ； strategic foresight ； National Development

參考文獻

莊純琪，2008，〈日本科技前瞻研究對其科技政策內涵擬訂的影響〉。《研考雙月刊》，32（6）：99-106。

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