車禍發生與都市地表溫度之相關性探討

A Study on the Correlation between Car Accidents and Urban Surface Temperature

劉蕙慈(Hui-Tzu Liu) ； 徐逸祥(Yi-Shiang Shiu)

《航測及遙測學刊》 25卷4期 (2020/12) Pp. 211-225

https://doi.org/10.6574/JPRS.202012_25(4).0002

摘要

本研究分析環境溫度與車禍發生次數之關聯，環境溫度來源為MODIS衛星影像，而車禍紀錄則取自政府開放資料平台（open data）。而為了確認道路型態是否也與車禍發生有關，因此以空間句法（space syntax）分析相對不對稱性（relative asymmetry, RA）指標。之後以雙變數空間自相關（bivariate local indicators of spatial association, BiLISA）及卜瓦松迴歸（Poisson regression），分別對地表溫度、RA值與和車禍次數進行空間及非空間關聯性分析。結果顯示雙變數空間自相關分析或是卜瓦松迴歸分析都證明車禍發生次數與地表溫度呈現正相關，後續可提供給都市計畫以及地方警政單位做為未來通盤檢討、都市設計、車禍防治、市容整理及交通執法等方面做參考。

關鍵字

MODIS影像 ； 地表溫度 ； 開放資料 ； 雙變數空間自相關 ； 卜瓦松迴歸

並列摘要

This study analyzed the relationship between the environmental temperature and the number of car accidents from the perspectives of space and time. The environmental temperature was retrieved by satellite images and the car accident records were based on the open data provided by the government open data platform. After sorting out the location data, three grid cells of different sizes were used to calculate the average surface temperature of the city and the number of car accidents. In order to confirm whether other factors are also related to the occurrence of car accidents, we added index related to road types, and analyzed relative asymmetry (RA) indicators through the concept of space syntax using road network diagrams to calculate the integration of the road. After the above pre-processing was completed, the bivariate local indicators of spatial association (BiLISA) and Poisson regression were used to analyze the spatial and non-spatial correlations between the surface temperature and the RA value and the number of accidents. The results help us to clarify whether there is a correlation between the location of the car accident and the urban surface temperature or road pattern. The results showed that both BiLISA and Poisson regression proved that the number of car accidents is positively correlated with the surface temperature, which can be provided to urban planning and local police units for future comprehensive review, urban design, car accident prevention, city appearance arrangement and traffic law enforcement etc. as the reference.

並列關鍵字

MODIS Images ； Surface Temperature ； Open Data ； Bivariate Local Indicators of Spatial Association ； Poisson Regression