Application of a Land Use Model for Forecasting Environmental Change

土地利用模式在預測環境變遷之應用

許立達(Li-Ta Hsu) ； Walter L. Mills

《台灣林業科學》 12卷3期 (1997/09) Pp. 245-253

https://doi.org/10.7075/TJFS.199709.0245

摘要

生態系經營的觀念目前已成爲自然資源經營的規範。生態系經營的一項基本原則強調生態與社會層面應該整合成於一體。而在人類活動頻繁地區，生態環境變遷多肇因於人類土地利用。因此，人類與環境間的互動關係亟待瞭解。本研究提出了一套能將社會因子與生態因子整合於生態系經營或環境規劃的實用方法。本研究依所觀察的都市擴展形態與土地及土地所有權之特性，配合離散選擇模式來預測將來各農地都市化的機率，並且據以模擬將來都市擴展的可能形態，以及土地管制措施對森林與溼地面積及農業生産的影響。土地利用選擇模式的統計結果顯示農地都市化與觀察的變數間具有顯著關係。模擬未來十年都市擴展的結果，則顯示不同土地管制措施會造成不同的都市擴展形態，對環境的影響程度也因而不盡相同。

關鍵字

土地利用 ； 都市化 ； 離散選擇模式

並列摘要

The concept of ecosystem management has become the paradigm of natural resource management. One basic principle of ecosystem management is that the social dimension and ecological dimension should be integrated together as a whole system. Environmental and ecological impacts in human-dominated landscapes are often caused by human land uses. Therefore, the interrelationships between humans and the environment need to be understood. The objective of this study is to propose a practical approach to integrating social and ecological factors in ecosystem management or environmental planning. This study uses a discrete choice model derived from observed urbanization patterns and characteristics of land and land ownership to examine the processes of land use change, and to predict future urbanization probabilities of agricultural land. The predicted urbanization probabilities are then used to simulate future urbanization patterns and their impacts on forests, wetlands, and agricultural production under different land use control scenarios. Results of the land use choice model is statistically significant, indicating that there is a relationship between urbanization of agricultural land and the observed explanatory variables. Results of the 10-yr simulations show that different land use control strategies may result in different urbanization patterns which, in turn, lead to different urbanization impacts.

並列關鍵字

land use ； urbanization ； discrete choice model