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Sources and Implications of Malapportionment in Taiwan

立委選制票票不等值的源由與影響

摘要


Malapportionment in Taiwan's legislature is above the global average, with nearly 8% of all seats apportioned to districts that would not otherwise have them. Some of this malapportionment is explicitly intended and has a normative justification based in the importance of maintaining communities of interest. However, most of the malapportionment is unintended. This paper identifies four sources of malapportionment, including the decision to distribute seats to cities, counties, and indigenous people, the size of the legislature, the process of drawing districts within cities and counties, and population growth. Of these, more than half of the total malapportionment stems from the decision to cut the size of the legislature in half. Malapportionment has several concrete political results. It slightly inflates the voice of rural areas, significantly inflates the voice of indigenous people, and dramatically inflates the voice of voters in offshore islands, especially in Lienchiang County. It also creates a normatively unjustifiable partisan bias of roughly 2.5-3.0% toward the KMT-led blue camp and against the DPP. The paper concludes by discussing possible remedies, including expanding the number of seats and changing the electoral formula.

並列摘要


從全球脈絡來看,台灣立法委員選制造成票票不等值(malapportionment)的程度偏高,相較於完全等值分配,目前接近百分之八的席次被分配到不該具有這些席次的選區,較世界平均還高。某些選票不等值的情況乃刻意造成,存在重要規範性民主原則,例如保護特定利益共同體(communityof interest)。然而,台灣大部分選票不等值的情況皆非刻意設計,本文指出主要有四個來源:一、縣市與原住民選區席次的分配決議;二、立法院總席次減半;三、各縣市內選區劃分;四、人口增加。其中,立法院總席次減半最關鍵,選票不等值超過一半的情況源自於此。選票不等值引發許多具體政治後果,包括鄉村地區代表性稍微膨脹、原住民代表性明顯膨脹,而離島代表性極度膨脹,尤其連江縣。選票不等值也造成政黨競爭非中立的制度不合理偏差,泛藍陣營大略享受百分之二點五到百分之三的優勢。最後,本文討論可減少目前票票不等值程度的可能改革方向,包括增加立法委員總數和改變選舉制度在內。

參考文獻


Batto, Nathan F.(2013).Partisan and Personal Voting in SNTV: A Mixed Logit Model.Journal of Electoral Studies.20(1),121-153.
Asaho, Mizushima. 2013. "The Value of a Vote: Addressing the Disparities in Japan's Electoral System." http://www.nippon.com/en/currents/d00078/ (December 23, 2015).
Executive Yuan. 2010. "Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting, and Statistics."http://ebas1.ebas.gov.tw/phc2010/chinese/rchome.htm (September 16, 2014).
Hideo, Tsuchiya. 2014. "Fifty Years On, Japan's High Court Yet to Act on Vote Disparity." http://www.nippon.com/en/currents/d00150/ (December 23, 2015).
Japan Times. 2015. "Upper House Districts Set for Shake-up after Electoral Reform Laws Pass Diet."http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2015/07/28/national/politics-diplomacy/upperhouse-districts-set-shake-electoral-reform-laws-pass-diet/#.Vnp8OE9SIxw (December 23, 2015).

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