散裝航運公司船舶買賣決策之關鍵影響因素

船舶無疑是航運公司的最重要資產。如何因應航運與造船市場波動而做出適當的船舶買賣決策，對航運公司的獲利是非常重要的。本文嘗試利用德菲法及層級分析法，針對台灣散裝航運公司船舶買賣之決策，建立一套評估模式，並據以探討影響船舶買賣決策之關鍵影響因素。為證明本文所建模式的可應用性，本研究以一家本國籍散貨運輸公司進行案例分析。以過去十年各準則值之變化值搭配其權重值，計算所得之各年度購船及賣船之總評分，再與該公司過去十年之購、賣船數量，具有中高度之相關性，顯示本模式之可應用性。

關鍵字

船舶買賣決策；德菲法；層級分析法；散裝航運公司

並列摘要

Ships are undoubtedly the most important assets of shipping companies. Good decisions to purchase or sell ships in response to the fluctuation in both shipping and ship manufacturing markets would be very profitable to shipping companies. To assist the decisions of ship sale or purchase, this paper attempts to develop a decision-making model for ship sale and purchase decisions of Taiwan dry-bulk shipping companies and to identify the key factors to the decisions. To do so, this paper adopts Delphi method and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to interview five experienced experts in the industry. To investigate the applicability of the proposed model, this study conducts a case study on a Taiwanese bulk shipping company. The weighted ratings of ship sale and purchase decision for the past 10 years are then computed according to the proposed model and historical markets in shipping and ship manufacturing. The weighted ratings moderately to highly correlate with the historical ship sale and purchase transactions of the study company, suggesting the applicability of the proposed model are satisfactory.