眷村社區環境再造之社會成本效益分析

Social Benefit-Cost Analysis on the Environmental Redevelopment of Military Dependents' Villages

胡志平(Chich-Ping Hu)

《建築與規劃學報》 9卷3期 (2008/12) Pp. 193-210

https://doi.org/10.30054/JAP.200812.0002

摘要

本文利用成本效益分析方法，對眷村重建國宅個案進行系統性的客觀分析。並且配合影子價格的概念，以社會總體的角度，探討重建之社會所需支付的代價及所能獲致的效益，分別將評估準則透過質化分析、量化轉換及貨幣化估計等的過程付予權重並且加總比較。在成本及效益貨幣化計算時，納入時間價值及受惠族群異質性因素，評估個案是否達到增進整體社會福祉的效果，以釐清重要影響因子、作爲未來改善住宅品質策略的依據。本文以眷村改建國宅社區作爲經驗論證案例，發現以簡單的社會成本分析方法計算後，益本比爲0.7907；接著在考慮時間成本的條件下計算，益本比降爲0.6805；而後再加入社會所得權重計算成本效益值，益本比則爲0.8867。不論以何種觀念及型式計算改建國宅的效益，均不符成本效益的原則。最後，本文調整社會折現率、所得權重及廠商投資報酬率進行敏感性分析，發現當折現率愈高、投資報酬率愈低、所得權重愈高，改建國宅的淨效益愈可能高於零。

關鍵字

成本效益分析 ； 眷村 ； 影子價格 ； 住宅品質 ； 社會折現率

並列摘要

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the economic benefit of blight housing-area from the redevelopment of public military dependents' villages systematically and objectively by applying the methods of benefit and cost analysis and shadow price. With the notion of shadow price under the consideration of total society, in this paper, the required social cost and the incurred social benefit will be derived by quantitative and monetary transformation of criterions as well as summing up the net benefit with weights added. The qualitative criterions of time value and beneficial groups will be applied by social benefit and cost analysis to evaluate whether the alternative can reach the effect of social welfare improvement. The experiences from this study will be applied to distinguish the influential factors from the criterions and to make a strategic decision on the improvement of housing quality. The empirical study, redevelopment of military dependents' villages into public housing, shows that the benefit to cost ratio (B/C) of 0.7907 is found by simple benefit and cost analysis. The B/C ratio of 0.6805 is then found to be decreased under the condition of time cost added, as well as the B/C ratio of 0.8867 is recalculated by considering the social income weights. The results of this study shows that, no matter what the notion and computation pattern about B/C ratio can be, the alternative of redevelopment of military dependents' villages into public housing is not to fit in with the principle of social benefit and cost analysis. Finally, the results of sensitive analysis by adjusting the social discount rate, income weights, and rate of return for firms in this study show that higher discount rates, lower rate of return, and higher income weights will contribute the net benefit of the alternative to be positive.

並列關鍵字

Military Dependents' Villages ； Benefit and Cost Analysis ； Shadow Price ； Housing Quality ； Social Discount Rate

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