影響壽險業房貸違約因素之研究

The Determinants on the Default of Residential Mortgages of the Life Insurance Industry

邱政憲(Cheng-Hsien Chiu) ； 林左裕(Tso-yu Calvin Lin)

《住宅學報》 29卷1期 (2020/06) Pp. 25-45

摘要

本文以壽險業保戶為研究對象，採用公報之違約定義，探討過去研究房貸違約顯著因素在新違約定義下之顯著性；另增加壽險契約效力相關變數，以了解壽險契約效力對房貸違約行為的影響。採用羅吉特迴歸模型進行實證分析，結果發現一般影響銀行房貸違約因素在新違約定義下對於保戶房貸依然顯著外，壽險契約的停效或終止亦對房貸違約有顯著影響，此發現可做為壽險業房貸業務之預警指標，除有助於壽險業之資金運用外，亦可強化其風險控管能力。此外，壽險業可基於都會區與非都會區或各擔保品分區間不同的違約因素顯著性，採取差異化的徵信措施。

關鍵字

壽險業 ； 壽險契約 ； 房貸 ； 違約 ； 財務會計準則第三十四號公報

並列摘要

To cope with the ＂default＂ regulation in the Statement of Financial Accounting Standards No. 34 (FAS 34), this study analyzes the significance of variables on residential mortgage default in the life insurance industry. We introduce variables associated with contract effectiveness to explore the impact of the termination of life insurance contracts on mortgage default. The empirical results from the logistic regression model indicate that the status of life insurance contracts, together with previous significant variables on mortgage default from the banking industry, are significant in determining the default behavior. We conclude that signals from the suspension or termination of life insurance contracts can serve as leading indicators for default on the mortgage loan portfolio in the life insurance industry. Furthermore, the life insurance industry could differentiate credit ratings between urban and rural areas or among different collateral regions according to various significant determinants.

並列關鍵字

life insurance industry ； life insurance contracts ； residential mortgage ； default ； Financial Accounting Standards No. 34 (FAS 34)

參考文獻

周建新、于鴻福與陳進財2004 〈銀行業房貸授信風險評估因素之選擇〉 《中華管理評論》7(2)：77-103。Chou, J. H., H. F. Yu & J. T. Chen2004 “The Choice of Risk Valuation Factors of Mortgage Loan within the Banking Industry,”Journal of Chinese Management Review. 7(2): 77-103.

林左裕與陳正芬2005 〈利用未償債務之扣除進行逃漏遺產稅之研究 —Logit 模式之應用〉 《交大管理學報》25(1)：205-229。Lin, T. C. & C. F. Chen2005 “A Study on the Deduction of Unpaid Debts for Estate Tax Evasion-An Application of the Logit Model,” Chiao Ta Management Review. 25(1): 205-229.

林左裕與賴郁媛2005 〈我國銀行業逾放比與總體經濟因素間關係之研究〉 《商管科技季刊》6(1)：165-179。Lin, T. C. & Y. Y. Lai2005 “A Study on the Relationship between the Non-performing Loan Ratio of the Banking Industry and Macro Economy in Taiwan,” Commerce & Management Quarterly. 6(1)：165-179.

馬君梅2003 〈財報分析應用於信用風險的發展趨勢〉 《會計研究月刊》214：84-94。Ma, C. M. 2003 “The Trend of the Application of Financial Statement Analysis on Credit Risk,”Accounting Research Monthly. 214: 84-94.

張士傑、黃雅文、洪銳棋與曾暐筑2018 〈人壽保險公司之風險及清償能力評估：檢視利率變動型人壽保險〉 《管理學報》35(3): 333-354。Chang, S. C., Y. W. Hwang, R. C. Hong & W. C. Tseng2018 “Risk and Solvency Assessment of the Life Insurer: An Examination of the Interest Sensitive Life (ISL) Insurance Policies,” Journal of Management. 35(3): 333-354.