建商新推個案產品定位分析－從主力坪數及面積離散度觀點探討

The Product Positioning Analysis of New Real Estate Development Projects: from the Perspectives of Primary Square Footage and Area Dispersion

李尚華(Shang-Hua Lee) ； 張金鶚(Chin-Oh Chang)

《住宅學報》 29卷2期 (2020/12) Pp. 69-98

摘要

建商新推個案為增加報酬及降低風險，需考量推案前產品定位是否恰當。過去研究較少從主力坪數及面積離散度討論產品定位之報酬及風險。本文由多項式Logistic模型實證可知，影響建商產品定位變數以區位特徵及建案特徵為主，景氣時機及建商特徵則非主因；另外，市郊區及市中心大基地建案，為在景氣時期獲得較高報酬，較常規劃「大坪數單一產品低離散度」市場區隔策略，但若市場惡化，將造成經營風險。本文建議，建商應更重視房市景氣變化，當對景氣存有疑慮時，規劃市郊區或市中心大基地建案應以「中坪數中高低離散度」市場區隔策略分散經營風險。

關鍵字

產品定位 ； 主力坪數 ； 面積離散度 ； 多項式Logistic模型

並列摘要

Real estate developers promote new projects to increase profit and lower risks. An important consideration before marketing units for sale is whether the product positioning is appropriate. Studies have not often investigated the rewards and risks of product positioning from the perspectives of primary square footage and area dispersion. This study employs a multinomial logistic model to verify that the primary variables affecting developers' product positioning are location traits and project traits rather than the status of the economy or builder traits. Developments that cover large sites in suburbs and urban centers see higher returns during economic upturns and tend to adopt a ＂large square footage, single product, low dispersion＂ market segmentation strategy. However, when the market falls, this results in operational risks. This paper suggests that real estate developers should pay more attention to housing market changes - if the market seems suspect, city suburb or city center large-scale development projects should adopt a ＂medium square footage, medium-high-to-low dispersion＂ market segment strategy to mitigate operational risks.

並列關鍵字

product positioning ； primary square footage ； area dispersion ； multinomial logistic model

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