馬可夫鏈於職業棒球棒次決策之應用

本文旨在應用馬可夫鏈開發決策支援系統，結合職棒歷史記錄之統計資料，根據資料建立每位球員的遞移矩陣，當球賽開始於第一局無人出局無人在壘的情況之下，因棒次排列方式的不同，經過遞移矩陣運算後，探討九局比賽的球隊得分分佈機率。本系統模擬計算的結果可與中華職棒大聯盟球賽記錄比較，以歷史資料驗証理論與系統計算結果的正確性。

關鍵字

馬可夫鏈；打擊次序；決策支援系

並列摘要

This study applies Markov chain method on developing a decision support system, which first combines the historical records of professional baseball and sets up the transition matrix for each player based on the statistics, and then the transition matrix for nine batters in a given order determines the run distribution produced by this lineup. The results of this decision support system can be used to compare with the ball game records of Chinese Professional Baseball League and the historical data can be used to verify the accuracy of the estimation of this decision support system.

並列關鍵字

Markov chain ； batting order ； decision support system

參考文獻

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