中國大陸對外石油戰略的制度發展與變遷：守勢現實主義觀點

Institutional Development and Change of Mainland China's Oil Strategy: From the Viewpoint of Defensive Realism

許源派(Yuan-Pai Hsu)

《全球政治評論》 51期 (2015/07) Pp. 93-122

摘要

中國大陸經濟快速成長，導致石油消費量不斷增加，加上國內石油產量逐漸耗竭之下，需依賴進口石油，致使石油進口量持續擴大。如今中國大陸石油進口量已位於世界第二，意味著中國大陸對外的石油依存度將越來越高，這將會造成在國家安全、經濟發展上受到制約與威脅。本文擬從守勢現實主義的理論視角，探討中國大陸的石油戰略發展現況及在面對石油安全的危機中，採取何種制度選擇，以及這些制度選擇能否能確保中國大陸的經濟持續發展。

關鍵字

中國大陸 ； 制度變遷 ； 石油戰略 ； 石油依存度 ； 守勢現實主義

並列摘要

In recent years, Mainland China's rapid economic growth, resulting in oil consumption increased. Mainland China's domestic oil production coupled with the gradual depletion resulting in reply on import of oil deeply. Today, Mainland China's import of oil is ranked the second in the world, means that Mainland China will be increasingly high dependence on foreign oil. This will result in the constraints and threats on national security and economic development in Mainland China. This paper attempt to explore development and crisis of Mainland China's oil strategy from perspective of realism theory, to understand what institutional choice does Mainland China will take, shall these institutional choices will ensure sustained economic development in mainland China?

並列關鍵字

Mainland China ； Institutional Change ； Oil Strategy ； Dependence of Oil ； Defensive Realism