印度面對拜登執政後中美競逐升溫的因應策略

India's countermeasures against the rising competition between China and the United States after Biden came to power

沈菊川(Chu- Chuan Shen)

《全球政治評論》 78期 (2022/04) Pp. 51-53+55-80

摘要

拜登時期來了，美國也回來了！美國在拜登帶領下，世界究竟會往何處去，這是2021年國際政治最受矚目的焦點，如今拜氏戰略雛形已然大致明確：「厚實本身綜合國力，領導民主國家聯盟，繼續對中實施壓制」。拜登對於前任制策既有延續性更存在自身特色，如在「印太」戰略中依舊堅持「四方安全對話」機制，持續圍堵中國，但對中國又非川普式的單純擊打，而是透過「合作－競爭－對抗」併舉，裨於國際現實縱橫捭闔中佔據道德制高點。拜登對中是改變川普獨立對抗而轉以多方聯合圍堵，除賡續鞏固並提升美日印澳弧型防堵功能與強度，如由外長會晤升級為領袖峰會外，更以此為基石，加入北約國家元素，將對中防線由亞洲延伸至歐洲，組成涵括日印澳在內的「民主國家聯盟」大包圍圈，此由法國、荷蘭、英國、德國相繼派遣海軍艦艇，東向航行至印太洋區參加高度針對性聯合軍演，甚至直接穿越台灣海峽，踩踏中國紅線即可見一斑。其中值得關注者為地處關鍵地緣位置的印度，印度以往對待「四方」機制始終是欲拒還迎，但是面對拜登主政後美國立場的變化，莫迪態度明顯轉為積極參與，顯然意圖在印太區域增強印度國際能見度與影響力。然而印度對於涉及安全、軍事等敏感領域依舊擺盪不選邊，如面對俄羅斯發動對烏克蘭戰爭的西方制裁，印度始終堅持中立，美歐日等大國卻對其無可奈何，甚至還要剁與接觸安撫。鑒此，印度在中美競逐升高對峙強度時，究竟可能做出何種戰略抉擇，實為本文著重探討的議題。

關鍵字

拜登 ； 美中競逐 ； 印太戰略 ； 區域整合 ； 經濟脫鉤

並列摘要

The Biden era is here, and the United States is back! Under Biden's leadership, where the world will go, this is the most noticeable focus of international politics in 2021. Now the embryonic form of the Bayesian strategy is roughly clear: ＂Strengthen its own comprehensive national strength, lead the alliance of democratic nations, and continue to focus on China. Implementation of suppression＂. Biden has its own characteristics for the continuation of his predecessor's policy. For example, in the ＂Indo-Pacific＂ strategy, he still adheres to the ＂four-party security dialogue＂ mechanism and continues to contain China, but it is not a simple attack on China. It is through the simultaneous development of ＂cooperation-competition-confrontation＂, which helps to seize the moral commanding heights in the international reality. Biden's confrontation with China is to change Trump's independent confrontation and turn to a multi-party joint containment. In addition to continuing to consolidate and enhance the anti-blocking function and strength of the US, Japan, India, and Australia, such as the meeting of foreign ministers to upgrade to a leader's summit, it is even more important. The cornerstone, adding NATO national elements, will extend the line of defense against China from Asia to Europe, forming a large encirclement of the ＂Alliance of Democracies＂ including Japan, India, and Australia. This is where France, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and Germany have successively dispatched naval ships to sail eastward. Participate in highly targeted joint military exercises in the Indo-Pacific region, and even cross the Taiwan Strait directly, as you can see by stepping on the red line of China. Among them, the one worthy of attention is India, which is located in a key geographical position. India has always refused to welcome the ＂quartet＂ mechanism in the past. However, India is still vacillating in sensitive fields such as security and military affairs. For example, in the face of Western sanctions against Russia for launching a war on Ukraine, India has always insisted on neutrality, but major powers such as the United States, Europe and Japan have nothing to do with it, and even cut and contact to appease it. In view of this, what kind of strategic choices India may make when China and the United States compete to increase the intensity of the confrontation is actually the focus of this article.

並列關鍵字

Biden ； U.S.-China Race ； Indo-Pacific Strategy ； Regional Integration ； Economic Decoupling