美國與中共南海「灰色地帶」競爭對臺灣衝擊之研究

A Study of U.S.-China ＂Gray Zone＂ Competitive in the South China Sea and the Impact toward Taiwan

謝志淵(Chih-Yuan Hsieh)

《國防雜誌》 35卷4期 (2020/12) Pp. 53-80

https://doi.org/10.6326/NDJ.202012_35(4).0003

摘要

2020年，美國總統大選因素催化美國與中共戰略競爭之關係，基於改變或確保地區乃至全球利益考量，持續於南海採取「灰色地帶」行動。當前，美國與中共競爭性的全面升級，不僅短時間看不到結果，更可能因雙方持續反制措施造成區域緊張。更甚之，美中競爭性的升級，可能是美國與中共戰略競爭關係實質改變之表徵，亦可能是美國與中共對臺關係將發生重大改變的關鍵時期。基此，我國須審慎評估美國與中共互動之過程，以多種角色靈活回應「灰色地帶」競爭之衝擊。

關鍵字

南海 ； 灰色地帶 ； 混合戰 ； 修正主義國家 ； 航行自由

並列摘要

In 2020, the United States and China's strategic competitive relationship has been catalyzed by the incoming U.S. presidential campaign. Based on the intents of imposing or ensuring their interests in the regions and even the world, the two parties will continue to take ＂gray zone＂ actions with distinct pattens in the South China Sea. At present, the overall escalation of U.S.-China competitive interaction will not end in the short term, and it may also cause regional tensions due to conduct countermeasures by both sides. The escalation of the competitive interaction may be a sign of the substantial changes in the strategic competitive relationship between the United States and China, and it may also be a critical period when the U.S.-China relationship with Taiwan will undergo massive changes. According to this assessment, Taiwan must carefully evaluate the entire process of the U.S.-China interactions and play multiple roles to flexibly respond to the impact of different kinds of ＂Gray Zone＂ interactions to ensure its own national interests.

並列關鍵字

South China Sea ； Gray Zone ； Hybrid Warfare ； Revisionist State ； Freedom of Navigation