近期由於索羅門群島與吉里巴斯在相隔數日之內與我國斷交,引起國人的震驚與議論。自民進黨政府重新執政以來每年皆有斷交事件,迄今斷交國數目已達七個,儼然成為新一波的斷交潮。回顧台海兩岸分裂分治至今,我國共經歷過五波的斷交潮,邦交國數目從1949年中華人民共和國成立時的五十二個,一路滑落到目前的十五國,外交處境日益艱難。本文以現實主義的觀點,從美陸台三邊關係的框架中,分析歷次斷交潮的成因及其相應的美國對台政策。研究的結果認為,為維護我國外交環境的穩定與發展,須與美國保持良好的關係,惟不能使自己成為美國的「台灣牌」。另一方面,在台海雙方都能接受的政治基礎之上,與中國大陸發展和諧的兩岸關係,如此方能杜絕斷交潮的再次發生。
Solomon Islands broke off diplomatic relations with our country recently and Republic of Kiribati followed suit days later, causing shocks and discussions among our nationals. Since DDP retook power, every year we cut diplomatic ties with foreign countries which amount to 7 until now. This is essentially a new wave of severing our diplomatic relations with foreign countries. Since 1949 when P.R.C was founded, we have gone through five periods of losing diplomatic relations. In 1949 we had 52 countries having diplomatic relation with us .After we broke away from Mainland China, there were only 15. In this disseration, I analyze, in a perspective of realism, the causes of those waves of losing diplomatic relations and the then US policy to Taiwan. This study comes to the conclusion that for the stability and development of our diplomatic environment, we should maintain good relationship with the US but not fall into its pawn. On the other hand, we need to build up a harmonious relation with Mainland China on an acceptable polictical basis for the both sides, therefore losing diplomatic relation will never happen again.