The Introductory Studies of Theories for Decision-Making in the Public Sector

公部門決策理論之導讀

黃國敏(Edward K. Hwang)

《中華人文社會學報》 14期 (2011/03) Pp. 12-39

摘要

決策是決策者基於價值觀和偏好找出備選方案並作選擇的研究。決策也是有效減少備選方案的不確定性和懷疑並從中作理性選擇的過程。人類迄今已建構許多有關決策的模型，例如C. Babbage, F. Taylor, and H.Gantt等著名的理性模型，H. Simon的滿意模型，C. Lindbrom的漸進模型，A. Etzioni的綜合掃描模型，J. Steinbruner的電子模控典範（組織過程模型），G. Allison的政府之政治模型等，這些模型都有助於我們作決策或分析決策，重點是它們不是互相否定而是相互補充。人們隨時隨地對任何事作決策，但怎麼做好決策？視情況而定！每一事件都有其特質和環境，吾人必須選擇適當方法作好決策。但首先必須選擇合適的決策模型來分析議題及其環境。

關鍵字

決策理論 ； 公部門 ； 政府決策

並列摘要

Decision-making is the study of identifying and choosing alternatives based on the values and preferences of the decision maker. Decision making is also the process of sufficiently reducing uncertainty and doubt about alternatives to allow a reasonable choice to be made from among them.Many decision-making models had been constructed until now. For example, Charles Babbage, Frederick Taylor, and Henry Gantt are famous for their rational models. Herbert Simon's famous for the ”Satisfying model;” Charles Lindbrom's famous for the ”Incremental model;” Amital Etzioni's famous for the ”Mixed-Scanning” approach; John Steinbruner's famous for the ”Cybernetic paradigm” (organizational process), and G. Allison's famous for the ”Governmental Politics model,” etc. All of these models or approaches could help us to make decisions or to analyze decisions. The key point is that they are not to overthrow each other but to mutually complement each other.People make decisions about anything anywhere, anytime. But how could we make better decisions? It depends. Every episode has its unique essence and environment. We have to choose suitable methods to make decisions. But first of all we must decide how to choose which decision model to analyze the issue and its environment.

並列關鍵字

Decision-Making Theories ； Public Sector ； Governmental Decisions