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Violence and Mobilization Probing the Inverted U-Shaped Link between Protest and Terrorism

摘要


Case studies have documented a solid link between protests and violence, although several mechanisms have been suggested to account for this relationship. Here, we test this connection and adjudicate between alternative mechanisms by using the tools of the large-N design. Our findings solidly support the existence of a positive relationship between mobilization and violence. Overall, we find that more popular mobilization encourages more violence, but this effect is stronger when the mobilizational wave is heading downward. This probes that low-intensity violence such as terrorism tends to spike when protests are in the waning side of the curve.

參考文獻


Maria Stephan and Erika Chenoweth, “Why Civil Resistance Works: The Strategic Logic of Nonviolent Conflict,” International Security 33, no. 1 (2008): 7-44.
Ted R. Gurr, Why Men Rebel (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1970)
Douglas A. Hibbs, Mass Political Violence: A Cross-National Causal Analysis (New York: John Wiley, 1973)
Mark I. Lichbach, “Deterrence or Escalation? The Puzzle of Aggregate Studies of Repression and Dissent,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 31 (1987): 266-297
Manus I. Mildarsky, “Rulers and the Ruled: Patterned Inequality and the Onset of Mass Political Violence,” American Political Science Review 82, no. 2 (1988): 491-509

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