北韓核試爆對於台灣半導體產業股價之影響

北韓核試爆的國際嚇組行為會損害南韓的國家安全與企業安全，造成半導體訂單從南韓半導體公司轉向其競爭對手台灣半導體產業，本研究目的為探討北韓預告核試爆或進行核試爆，造成朝鮮半島政治不確定性提高，是否會傳遞給投資人「南韓半導體產業的競爭者─台灣半導體企業的價值提升」之信號，投資人因而大舉買進股票，導致台灣半導體產業股票價格出現異常報酬，過去研究多以質性調查或問卷了解國家安全議題，鮮少透過數量證據驗證國家安全對企業價值的影響，本研究採用事件日分析法，藉由數量證據了解企業訂單會由軍事危急的地區轉向政治安定的地區，國家安全與企業危機管理密切相關，實證結果發現北韓核試爆成功，台灣半導體產業產生顯著正向異常報酬；然而，北韓核試爆失敗，台灣半導體產業產生不顯著的負向異常報酬。北韓首次預告核試爆事件，台灣半導體產業產生顯著正向異常報酬，研究結果隱含北韓首次核試爆，半導體產業在不了解北韓國防實力下轉單至台灣半導體業，投資人大舉買進，造成台灣半導體股價上漲。北韓核首次試爆之預告後台灣半導體產業產生的異常報酬，顯著大於北韓核試爆失敗後台灣半導體產業產生的異常報酬。實證結果支持股價反應國際間國防安定的情勢。

關鍵字

半導體；北韓；核試爆；異常報酬

並列摘要

Taiwanese and South Korean semiconductor industries have been the major competitors in the global semiconductor industry. North Korea's nuclear test explosions damage South Korea's national security and corporate security, causing semiconductor orders to shift from South Korean semiconductor companies to its rival Taiwan's semiconductor industry. This study extends signaling theory to explore Korean conflict on market response. We aim to investigate the market responses to the incident of ＂North Korea nuclear tests＂ in Taiwanese semiconductor industry. This investigation uses quantitative evidence to prove the impact of military deterrence on the firm value, causing order transformations from corporations in dangerous areas to the political safety areas. The empirical result show that Taiwanese semiconductor stocks' abnormal returns are positive when North Korea conducts a ＂successful＂ nuclear test. No significant market reaction exists in Taiwanese semiconductor industry when North Korea conducts an unsuccessful nuclear test. Taiwanese semiconductor stocks' abnormal returns are positive when North Korea announced its plans for nuclear tests in advance. Taiwanese semiconductor stocks' abnormal returns will be significantly different between the pre-announcement and occurrence of the ＂North Korea's nuclear tests. Our findings support how the national defense security affect market response in stock markets.