以系統動態學探討軍人保險準備金融資及投資決策模型－短期政策模擬與分析

Discussion on the Financing and Investment Decision-Making Model of Military Insurance Reserve with System Dynamics-Long-term and Shirt-term policy simulation and analysis

蕭志安(C. A. Hsiao) ； 劉培林(P. L. Liu) ； 方崇懿(C. Y. Fang)

《危機管理學刊》 19卷2期 (2022/09) Pp. 13-26

https://doi.org/10.6459/JCM.202209_19(2).0002

摘要

軍人保險是臺灣的社會保險制度之一，由於人員精簡，對退伍給付的需求急劇增加，導致軍人保險準備金規模逐年減少。如政府未提存應計負債的部分，越早完成撥補責任，將有助於準備金複利增息與資金運用效果，「向金融機構借款支應」是一個解決方案。然而，運用融資借貸進行投資之方式涉及融資與償還政策、資產配置及投資收益等具動態複雜、非線性及時間延遲特性之複雜因素。因此，本研究運用系統動態學方法建構一個評估融資及投資之動態決策模型，於不同情境與政策下進行政策分析與模擬，探討對軍保準備金規模及投資收益之影響趨勢，並提出適當的政策建議，作為業管單位決策之參考。

關鍵字

軍人保險準備金 ； 融資 ； 資產配置 ； 投資決策 ； 系統動態學

並列摘要

Military insurance, which is one of Taiwan's social insurance systems, has sharply increased the demand for retirement benefits due to the streamlining of personnel, resulting in a decrease in the size of military insurance reserves year by year. If the government does not deposit the portion of the accrued liabilities, the sooner it completes the allocation responsibility, it will help increase the military insurance reserves compound interest, and the effect of capital use. ＂Borrowing from financial institutions＂ is a solution. However, the use of financing and borrowing for investment involves complex factors such as financing and repayment policies, asset allocation, and investment income. These are dynamic, non-linear, and time-delay. Therefore, this study adopts systematic dynamics to construct the evaluation of financing and investment. Use this model to analyze and simulate policies in various scenarios and scenarios, explore the trend of the impact on the scale of military insurance reserves and investment returns, and put forward appropriate policy recommendations as a reference for decision-making by business management units.

並列關鍵字

Military Insurance Reserves ； Financing ； Asset Allocation ； Investment Decisions ； System Dynamics

參考文獻

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