以社交網路分析為基礎之客戶流失預測

近年來因網路的發展日趨成熟、手持裝置的普及與社群網站的興起，人們每天接受的資訊量較以往多出許多，而往往接受的資訊都可能是屬於某個群體所散佈出來的。所以，在接收資訊的同時也容易受到群體的影響。因此，每個在社群中的個體在於作選擇的時候都可能受社群內、外的其他個體所影響，而作出不同選擇。過去在進行個人行為的預測時，大多以個人本身的資訊作為預測依據，去剖析其未來的行為，並未考慮到社群間的交互影響關係。但人類是群居的生物，在決定某些行為時，時常會受到所屬族群的影響。舉例來說，當一個人在面臨手機門號是否續約的時候，可能因為過去使用的體驗不佳而換成另一家電信業者，又或者因為身旁的親朋好友都是用某家電信業者的門號，而攜碼至那家電信業者。對於業者而言，去挽留即將流失的客戶所花的成本會比去開發一個新客戶的成本來得低許多。若能提前預知客戶是否會流失，將可以降低營運的成本。在本文中，我們將運用社群網路（Social Network）的概念，去建構一個基於社群網路的流失偵測模型，找出會影響客戶流失的重要關鍵因素（Key Performance Indicator, KPI），並計算其流失的可能性，提高預測的準確度。同時提供給決策者一個高可信賴度的分析報告，作為挽留客戶的決策依據，降低客戶流失在營運中所造成的成本與營運虧損。

關鍵字

客戶流失關鍵因素；流失預測；群組分析；社交網路傳播分析

並列摘要

Network grows up, mobile devices spread among the people and social websites like facebook, twitter etc. rise. The information that people can receive a day is much more than before, however the information may be spread by a group of people which close to their social scope so that when people receive the information they will be effect by the group. Therefore, an individual in a social group makes may be suffered an influence from some people whatever they inside social network the individual belong to or outside, when making a decision. In the past, most people made a precision model according to individual information or attributes, but they were not to consider to their social relevant. Human is kind of group live animal, most of their behaviors often affect by their live group. For instance, when people's mobile contract is expired, they need to make a decision to decide whether keep the same mobile operator or change others. Most of kind of such decision will affect from the past experience or their friends. If people's friend user the other mobile operator, the possibility that people change their mobile operator will rise up. For mobile operator, the cost to keep a client will be much cheaper than to develop a client. In this paper, we will use the concept of social network to construct a churn precision model based on social network analysis. Further, find the key performance indicator that affects a client churn to rise the accuracy of precision of client churn.

並列關鍵字

Customer Churn KPIs ； Churn Prediction ； Group Churn Analysis ； Social Network Diffusion Analysis

參考文獻

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以社交網路分析為基礎之客戶流失預測

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