高等教育與經濟條件對臺灣生育率影響之消長─1974與2002階層線性模型比較

The Shifting Effects of Higher Education and Economic Conditions on the Fertility in Taiwan: The Comparison between Hierarchical Linear Models in 1974 and 2002

詹傑勝(Jie-Sheng Jan)

《跨界：大學與社會參與》 7期 (2015/12) Pp. 1-26

摘要

人口轉型理論與財富流動理論認為社會價值轉變導致自願性生育率下降。臺灣生育水準究竟是受教育提升或是經濟困境影響或兩者皆是，尚不明確。本研究之目標是比較教育發展以及經濟困境，在影響以往三十年臺灣生育水準時，扮演主要關鍵角色的轉換。該研究也提出，高等教育率比識字率更適合作為預測目前臺灣超低生育水準的指標。初步分析是兩份縣市層級資料，分別是1974年以及2002年資料。以OLS迴歸模型比較社會變項與經濟變項對生育率的影響力。由於縣市層級資料的小樣本限制，本研究進一步蒐集2002年鄉鎮市層級的社會變項，結合縣市層級的經濟變項進行二層次的階層線性模型分析，以確認社會與經濟變項對低生育率在統計顯著上的關聯性。OLS迴歸模型以及二層次分析都顯示，經濟變項（男性失業率以及女性勞動參與率）在二十一世紀時，變得比高等教育變項對生育率有較大的影響力。

關鍵字

極低生育率 ； 高等教育 ； 失業 ； 婦女勞動參與

並列摘要

Demographic transition and wealth flows theory suggest that changes of social values result in voluntary fertility decline. This study aims to demonstrate the shifting roles of education and economic constraints as the key factors in determining the fertility level in Taiwan in the past thirty years. This study also justifies higher education rate as a better indicator of education than illiteracy rate to predict lowest low fertility in Taiwan. Two data sets at the county level, one in 1974 and the other in 1998-2002, are utilized in OLS regressions to compare the effects of social and economic determinants on fertility. Due to the limitation of small number of observations at the county level, a data set at the township level in 2002 is introduced in a two level analysis to confirm statistically significant associations of social and economic determinants with low fertility. Results from OLS regressions and two level analyses both show that economic factors (male unemployment rates and female labor force participation rates) become more important than higher education in affecting fertility levels.

並列關鍵字

Lowest-low fertility rate ； Higher education ； Unemployment ； Female labor participation