增加值视角下中国服务贸易发展方式转变研究

中国服务贸易总值规模迅速增长，出口结构逐渐优化，但也存在逆差过大、新兴行业发展不充分等问题；出口增加值绝对额增长较快，并在“一带一路”沿线国家表现较好，但对低技术行业依赖性强，特别是增加值年度增长率不高且在波动中呈下降趋势，服务贸易发展方式亟待转变。故在构建出口增加值恒等式基础上，以夏普利值分解为方法度量了要素对增加值变化的边际贡献，结果表明：人均GDP是增加值变化的主要驱动因素且较为稳定，但在2013年后被就业人口超越；国民经济技术密度与出口部门技术强度对增加值贡献小且不稳定。因此，加大对“一带一路”沿线国家服务出口力度、优化国内营商环境，推动技术密集型行业发展、提升就业人口素质等有利于加快推动我国服务贸易发展方式的转变。

關鍵字

服务贸易；出口增加值；贸易恒等式；一带一路

並列摘要

The development in the trade in services sector is an important way to achieve the transformation of foreign trade development mode of China. However, with the rapid growth of the total value of China's service trade, the export structure has been gradually optimized. The absolute value added of exports has increased rapidly and performed well in countries along the ＂One Belt And One Road＂ still, it is highly dependent on a few developed countries and low-technology industries. In particular, the value added rate has been at a low level for a long time, and the development mode of service trade urgently needs to be changed. Therefore, based on the identities of export value added, the marginal Contribution of each index to the Change of value added is measured by the decomposition of Shapley value. The results show that per Capita GDP is the main driving factor for the Change of value added and is relatively stable, but it has been surpassed by the services employment-population after the year of 2013; the Contribution of the national economies technology density and the technical strength of the export sector to the added value of service exports is slight and unstable, and there is a strong negative correlation between them. Therefore, increasing the export of services to the countries along the ＂Belt and Road＂, enhancing the domestic business environment, and improving the quality of the employment-population in the service industry will help accelerate the transformation of China's service trade development mode.

並列關鍵字

service trade ； export value-added ； trade identity ； the Belt and Road

國際替代計量

增加值视角下中国服务贸易发展方式转变研究

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