中美關係變局與兩岸關係：歷史與現實

The Variation of Sino-U.S. Relations and Cross-Strait Relations: History and Reality

熊興(Xiong Xing)

《亞洲政經與和平研究》 1期 (2019/08) Pp. 55-80

摘要

中美關係和兩岸關係之間一直存在著相互影響與互動關係。從歷史的回顧上看，中美關係和兩岸關係的發展一直緊密相關，歷史上中國大陸與美國之間的關係變局，尤其是中美關係和美國對台政策的變化，對台海兩岸關係都產生了直接影響，而兩岸關係的發展和變化亦無法迴避美國因素的重要影響。而隨著國際情勢的發展變化和中美兩國實力的消長變化，近年來，美國對中國總體看法和認識上開始出現大轉向。尤其是川普執政以來，中美之間的矛盾性開始增加，中美關係正處在新的大變局中，美國的兩岸政策也正經歷調整期。本文回顧了中美關係變化對兩岸關係的影響，分析當前中美關係變局產生的原因，探討這一變局的發展變化將對兩岸關係尤其是臨近2020的台海局勢產生何種影響。

關鍵字

中美關係 ； 兩岸關係 ； 歷史 ； 現實

並列摘要

The Sino-U.S. relations and Cross-strait relations have been influenced and interacted. From the perspective of the history, Sino-U.S. relations and Cross-strait relations has always been closely related. In history, the variation between Mainland China and U.S., particularly the changes of Sino-U.S. relations and the U.S. policy toward Taiwan, has impacted on the Cross-strait relations directly. And the development and change between Mainland China and Taiwan also cannot avoid the great impact of the United States. With the great change of the international situation and the power shift between U.S. and China, U.S. has begun to rethink and revise the general attitude and understanding toward China in recent years. The contradictions between China and the U.S. began to rise on the Trump Administration. Sino-U.S. relations is in a new variation of uncertainties, and the U.S. Cross-strait policy is also undergoing a period of adjustment. This paper looking back in the history of the impact of the change between China-U.S. relations on Cross-strait relations, addressing the reasons for the current variation of Sino-U.S. relations, and discussing the impact of Cross-strait relations and the 2020 Taiwan election.

並列關鍵字

Sino-U.S. Relations ； Cross-strait Relations ； History ； Reality