戰爭牌與連任：第34任至第44任美國總統之實證研究

The War Card and Re-election: An Empirical Study of the 34rd-44th Presidents of the United States

林文謙(Wun-Cian Lin)

《亞洲政經與和平研究》 2期 (2019/12) Pp. 69-110

摘要

本文旨在釐清「外交政策取向」與「總統連任」之間的關係，研究對象是第34任至第44任美國總統，從而為「攻擊型政策取向（戰爭牌）有助於成功連任」之傳統模型（M1）進行實證檢驗。在經過羅吉斯迴歸（logistic regression）、簡單線性迴歸（simple linear regression）、以及調節效應測試（moderating effect test）等檢測後，研究發現如下：一、「攻擊型外交政策取向」和「總統成功連任」這兩個變項的關係未達統計上的顯著水準，意即傳統模型（M1）無法獲得實證支持；二、筆者提出修正模型（M2），置入一個調節變項：「國內的通貨膨脹率」（以CPI增長率為指標）。修正模型的解釋力比傳統模型來得更佳。

關鍵字

戰爭牌 ； 連任 ； 轉移焦點理論 ； 團結在國旗下的效應

並列摘要

The purpose of this article was to explore the relationship between foreign policy orientation and presidential re-election by analyzing the 34th to 44th presidents of the United States, and subsequently conducting an empirical test by using the Traditional Model (M1), which states that an aggressive foreign policy orientation (play the war card) is associated with re-election. The statistical methods used to analyze the data comprised logistic regression, simple linear regression, and the moderating effect test. The research findings were as follows. First, no significant correlation was observed between aggressive foreign policy orientation and re-election, indicating that Traditional Model (M1) was not supported by the empirical results. Second, a Modified Model (M2) was developed, which included the domestic inflation rate (based on the consumer price index) as a moderator variable. The Modified Model (M2) exhibited greater explanatory power than Traditional Model (M1).

並列關鍵字

The War Card ； Re-election ； Rallying Round the Flag Effect ； Diversionary Theory