美國臺海政策的矛與盾：川普前半任期的回顧（2017-2018）

Spears and Shields in the United States Policies toward the Taiwan Strait: A Review of the First Half in Donald Trump's Presidency (2017-2018)

黃奎博(Kwei-Bo Huang)

《亞洲政經與和平研究》 3期 (2020/04) Pp. 41-64

摘要

本文探討川普總統執政的前兩年，美國對臺海政策的重要作為，並將之分為較具積極主動性質的「矛」與較少具積極主動性質的「盾」。「矛」指的是美國在亞太的軍事部署、在經貿關係上的相對強勢、在南海與臺海主權爭議中的法律戰／輿論戰以及執行自由航行行動；「盾」則意味美國版「一中政策」下有限度的對臺持續軍售和外交支持，以及利用美國國會對臺灣的友善態度。經過概略討論川普政府外交政策的執行，以及梳整美國台海政策的歷史事實與政策意涵，本文指出：一、川普政府整體上仍然執行不全然一邊倒的兩手策略，但略為擴大了對臺工作的「灰色地帶」；二、川普政府在臺海政策的「矛盾」或戰略模糊，某種程度上似已撼動了美國對臺海雙方的外交與戰略關係。

關鍵字

美國 ； 川普（特朗普） ； 臺灣 ； 中國大陸

並列摘要

This essay explores the U.S. key measures to the Taiwan Strait during the first two years of Donald Trump's presidency. These measures are divided into ＂spears＂ that are more assertive and proactive and ＂shields＂ that aren't. ＂Spears＂ refer to the U.S. military deployment in the Asia Pacific, relative tough stance on economic and trade relations, and the legal and public opinion warfare and the Freedom of Navigation Operations Program in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait. ＂Shields＂ mean the U.S. limited support for continued arms sales to Taiwan and diplomacy in line with the U.S.'s own ＂one China＂ policy, as well as Trump's utilization of the U.S. Congressional friendly attitude toward Taiwan. By discussing briefly the operation of the Trump administration's foreign policy and sorted out historical facts and policy implications of the U.S. policy toward the Taiwan Strait, this essay points out that, in general, the Trump administration still carries out a two-tier policy that will not simply tilt toward one side of the Taiwan Strait, but the grey area for programs with Taiwan has expanded a little, and that both Taipei and Beijing are not satisfied on but manage to accept such a strategic ambiguity in the Trump administration's Taiwan Strait policy, but in a way it seems the Trump administration has shaken the U.S. diplomatic and strategic relations with Taipei and Beijing.

並列關鍵字

United States (U.S.) ； Donald J. Trump ； Taiwan ； mainland China