民族主義下政治認同對強權國家興衰之影響

The Impact of Political Identity on the Rise and Fall of Great Powers: The Argument Based on Nationalism

譚偉恩(Wayne Tan)

《亞洲政經與和平研究》 3期 (2020/04) Pp. 65-96

摘要

民族主義在政策操作上要因時制宜且謹慎小心，並針對一個國家的人口族群結構進行充分掌握。為釐清民族主義與強權國家興衰之關聯性，本文以當前高度被熱議的兩個強權―美國和中國―為例，進行個案研究。中國因為短時間內很難成為一個吸引移民的國家，使得它頂多只能是個「強權」卻無法成為「霸權」。在這樣的情況下，北京當局操作民族主義的優先策略不應是設法對非漢人的族群強化共產黨執政合法性之政治認同，而應是對境內有分離運動或獨立傾向的區域進行市場開放和各種經濟活動之自由競爭。相較之下，美國身為一個高度吸引移民的國家，必須理解過去國力強大的根源是歷屆政府對來自全球各地移民之包容與吸納。因此，如果美國現在無法控制境內民族主義在全球化下受到的衝擊，甚至刻意引導本土美國人的政治認同走向民粹主義，將會漸漸流失自己對移民的吸引力，進而使其國家發展的潛能受阻。一旦這樣的情況發生，屆時就算沒有中國（或其它新興強權）的挑戰，美國也很難維持其世界霸權之地位。

關鍵字

民族主義 ； 政治認同 ； 美國 ； 中國 ； 移民

並列摘要

The manipulation of nationalism should be careful to consider all circumstances in practice, and at the same time, be vigilant in evaluating racial and ethnic makeup of one country's population. In order to clarify the connection between nationalism and the rise or fall of a great power, this article focuses on two highly concerned actors-the United States and China-as the examples to conduct case studies. The preliminary research finding shows that it is hard for China to be a country that attracts immigrants around the world in the foreseeable future, making China only a regional great power instead of a global hegemon. With regard to this, Beijing's strategy to better apply its nationalism strategy is not to forcefully implant the political identity of the 'Han-ethnic' Communist Party's legitimacy. Alternatively, Beijing should open markets and deregulate various economic activities in the regions where 'nonHan-ethnic' groups have the tendency to separate themselves from Beijing's control. In contrast, being a nation of immigrants, the United States should realize that its rise to power results from the tolerance of racial or ethnic diversity and the long history of successfully accommodating people from across the globe. Therefore, if the current Trump's administration is unable to cope with domestic nationalism aggravated by the impact of globalization and deliberately offers a comprehensive manipulation of populist ideas, the United States will gradually become less attractive and less popular to immigrants, thereby hindering its development. In view of this, it is difficult for the United States to keep maintaining its world supremacy even without the challenge of China (or other emerging powers).

並列關鍵字

Nationalism ； Political Identity ； the United States ； China ； Immigrants